Economists have found a way to mitigate the effects of the strengthening of the ruble


The majority of Bloomberg surveyed economists recommended that the government of Russia to cut costs and to increase the list of state assets set for privatization to carry out the assignment of President Vladimir Putin, concerned about the strengthening of the ruble. All respondents unanimously agreed that a floating exchange rate, introduced in late 2014, has been far-reaching positive effects. In total the survey was attended by 18 analysts.

According to the chief economist of Swedbank in Vilnius of Nereus Maculosa, the weakening of the ruble to increase revenues from the sale of hydrocarbons is a short-term tactic that harms long-term prospects. “To attract foreign investment Russia needs a stable or stronger currency and a credible, independent Central Bank”, — he said.

A collapse in import demand as a result of weakening of the ruble turned out to be crucial for the adaptation of economy to the current situation, reminded the analyst of the Moscow PSB Sergey Narkevich, who, according to Bloomberg, in the fourth quarter of 2015, ranked second among analysts predictions on the ruble.

The July weakening of the ruble 3.1% was much less than the fall in oil prices, which fell more than 14%, specifies Bloomberg, explaining that the government received less money in national currency for every barrel sold for dollars. In early August, the ruble has again gone to growth, and on Monday, he has been strengthening for a fifth consecutive session. As of 17:40 GMT the dollar was given 64,6075 by 1.52% above the closing price.

On Monday a barrel of Brent crude oil on the basis of which calculates the value of the Russian Urals, is 2922 RUB Is 7% less than the average price of a barrel of Urals in 3165 RUB., included in the Russian budget for this year. 11 of 17 economists surveyed by Bloomberg on July 26-27, said that the current rate is sufficient to begin the process of recovery of the Russian economy and its growth by 4% in the medium term.

According to the Deputy head of the Economic Council under the President of Russia Alexey Kudrin, now the ruble and the dollar are in equilibrium and no special measures for the weakening of the Russian currency to take is not necessary. He, like Bloomberg survey of economists, believes that the ruble is better to leave in free swimming, as this will have a positive impact on long-term economic growth.

In mid-July, Putin drew attention to the risks of excessive strengthening of the ruble. “The ruble strengthened, despite the price volatility in commodity markets, and in this regard we need to think about how and what we will do in the near future in connection with these factors,” the President said at a meeting with the head of the government Dmitry Medvedev.

The day before Putin Putin at a meeting with business Ombudsman Boris Titov urged to find a balance between the interests of businesses that benefit from a weaker and a stronger national currency. “Those who have to import, it is not like, and those costs is in roubles, and sells abroad, just a weak national currency is more profitable,” said the President.

After these statements of the head of state the dollar strengthened from 63 to 66 rubles for six consecutive trading sessions.

The head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina said that the regulator is not going to affect the exchange rate and said that the free trade of currency has helped to mitigate the impact of the economic downturn. In late July, the Central Bank left its key rate unchanged.