The Central Bank announced the end of the recession in Russia


Russia’s economy continues to adapt to low oil prices in the second quarter of 2016, economic activity rose slightly in the coming months, the economy could go into growth, it is noted in the Bulletin of the Department of studies and forecasting of the Central Bank.

“The index rating of Russia’s GDP suggests that the recession is behind us, and ahead of a slow growth economy”, – the experts of the Bank of Russia.

By the end of July the index estimate of GDP growth for the second quarter of 2016 (the previous quarter) was increased compared with the June rating with 0-0,1% to 0.2–0.3%, says the Bulletin. In the third quarter, according to new estimates, GDP growth (quarter to quarter) could reach 0.4% in October-December from 0.5 percent, according to analysts of the Central Bank.

“The incipient recovery of inventories and the continuation of unsustainable growth in the industry should gradually transform into a more stable, albeit lower growth rates of economy”, – stated in the Bulletin.

Experts of the Central Bank warned that “the trajectory of slow growth, the Russian economy in the coming months will be able to emerge only in the absence of new external shocks.” Such a shock could be, for example, a new fall in world prices in the oil market. “Some evidence that the rebalancing of the oil market is delayed, caused a decline in prices. In the end, July was the most unfortunate month for the oil market since December 2015: prices of different varieties fell by 14-15%,” – stated in the Bulletin of the Central Bank.

In the middle of June 2016, the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev predicted that Russia’s economy will completely come out of recession later this year. Low point of the recession passed, there is a rapid economic recovery. Since the third quarter, the Russian economy will show growth. The recession in the economy will completely cease by the end of this year”, — said the Minister, speaking at the forum “Business twenty” in the framework of St. Petersburg international economic forum.