Evidence that “the pulse of the economy starts to beat faster,” Bloomberg calls the increase in volume of rail and container traffic and the growth in electricity demand. In July 2016, the electricity demand grew by 1.8%, while in June the growth was estimated at 1.6 percent, and in may of 0.4%.
According to the median forecast of 19 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg in the second quarter of 2016, the decline in GDP will be the lowest since the start of 2015 compared to the same period last year, GDP will shrink by 0.8%. For comparison, in the first quarter, Russia’s GDP decreased at an annual rate of 1.2%.
In report IK “the Renaissance the Capital” events called signal advance the economy in a positive direction. “Given the high cost of connecting to the network requires a long-term optimistic, and a surge of such applications in 2016 suggests that members of the Russian economy are much more optimistic than a year ago,” – noted the analysts of Renaissance Capital Vladimir Sklyar and Anastasia Tikhonova.
As writes Bloomberg, in contrast to the crises of 1998 and 2009, when the economy was turning around, and fell, this time restoring the world’s largest energy exporter has been delayed. Investments fall the longest since 1995, amid falling oil prices, but in the near future, this trend can be overcome, as capital-intensive business comes to life.
Improved forecasts whets the appetite for Russian assets, continued the Agency. As confirmation of this thesis it recalls that the ruble in the second quarter has strengthened 4.8 percent against the greenback, having shown the best dynamics among emerging market currencies after the Brazilian real. The volatility of the ruble on Wednesday fell to the lowest level in almost two years, and the demand for ruble-denominated government bonds exceeded the offer four times. The yield on ten-year securities falls for the fifth day.
Morgan Stanley analysts also hope that the economic recovery this time will be sustainable. However, according to analysts “URALSIB Capital”, it remains fragile, mainly because of the “downside risks related to oil prices, slow growth in the United States, Brexit and the risks of economic crisis in China.”
The question is whether a fair wind enough to swell the sails of the ship of the Russian economy, concludes Bloomberg.
Earlier experts of Bank of Russia declared about the end of recession in the economy. By the end of July the index estimate of GDP growth for the second quarter of 2016 from the previous quarter and was increased with the Central Bank of 0-0. 1% to 0.2–0.3% in the third quarter GDP growth (quarter to quarter) could reach 0.4% in October-December from 0.5 percent.
“The index rating of Russia’s GDP suggests that the recession is behind us, and ahead of a slow growth economy”, — stated in the Bulletin of the Department of studies and forecasting of the Central Bank.
At the same time, experts of the Central Bank warned that “the trajectory of slow growth, the Russian economy in the coming months will be able to emerge only in the absence of new external shocks.” Such a shock could be, for example, a new fall in world prices in the oil market.