“Putin does not want a scandal”: the scientists of the reshuffle in the Kremlin

Mikhail Vinogradov, the head of Fund “the Petersburg policy”:

Anton Vaino — career official, with Putin since 2008, the government worked last time in the administration. I think, most likely, this person is not lobbied, especially by someone, and enjoy the personal trust of Vladimir Putin, who is trying to keep a bit of the younger generation.

A new position, Ivanov looks, of course, is not very convincing, but for reasons of rearrangements, we have two interpretations of what happened. The first such to be expected: the fact that every time before the parliamentary elections or after them, the head of administration changes and exceptions almost was not. The second possible interpretation is associated with tactical events. We see in the last couple of months of active pushing with their elbows, the war of all against all, including in law enforcement agencies. Here, probably, too, it needs some accents, although Anton Vaino still have to be approved, showing that he has the right to vote in these matters.

Pavel Salin, Director of the Center for political studies, Financial University under the government of the Russian Federation:

— The resignation Ivanova is embedded in a complete reconfiguration of the bureaucracy, which Vladimir Putin has taken in recent months. It introduces a new entity in the public field. Vaino is the optimal candidate because, on the one hand, he knows everything about the functioning of the administration of the President. He is a former Deputy head of the administration, and the head of Protocol. And the head of the Protocol — is a person… as a personal aide, twenty-four hours a day almost on contact with the President.

Tatiana Stanovaya, an expert at the political techniques Center:

— Motivation that Ivanov did not want to work the head of administration more than four years, need only to save face. Putin doesn’t want to make a fuss about it, then Ivanov with honors without any criticism and hints. Putin often takes a towering figure, assigns a low position and observes how this figure will take the fall. Remember the story of Sergei Shoigu, when he was removed from the emergencies Ministry and was appointed Governor of the Moscow region. Many then thought it was the end of a career. But then he became Minister of defense. Therefore, to write off from the accounts of Ivanov yet.

After Ivanov became Putin’s successor, he has become a charged figure in the eyes of the elite. As head of the administration, he does own the game. Players, formally occupying less significant positions, often went to Putin to bypass Ivanov. Former chief of staff tried to be active in the field of fight against corruption, but it is obvious that significant results he achieved. So you can not say that shot of mastodon, Ivanov played a technical role, despite a high position.

Konstantin Kalachev, head of the Political expert group:

— Vaino worked in the government, and it has a good relationship. Therefore, his appointment as the head of administration will mean a good relationship of the administration with the government. The appointment of technocrat and not strongman says that the President wants to surround himself only with people from law enforcement agencies.

On the President’s decision could be influenced by many factors. Among them — and the conflict between the security forces and the need for more sophisticated relations between the presidential administration and the government, and the need for a new generation of politicians.

Yevgeny Minchenko, Director of the International Institute of political expertise:

— Ivan, indeed, he asked to be transferred to another post, talking about this was a long time ago. The position of the special representative of the President on ecology and transportation provides ample opportunities. These markets represent billions of dollars, if you want serious doing it is very good.

Igor Bunin, Director of the Center for political technologies:

— I think that this is a continuation of a process: initially dismissed [the former head of Russian Railways Vladimir] Yakunin, then [former Director FSO Eugene] Murov, then [the former head of the Federal drug control service] Viktor Ivanov, now dismissed Ivanov. Just from the composition, which brought Putin in 2000, he now decided to give up. I have a feeling that this Quartet will be followed by some people. This is due to the very simple thing: he is very afraid of brezhnevites”. If Putin is surrounded by 65-70-year-olds, the memory of Brezhnev and his team will remain in the minds of the masses. Old friends remain old friends, they can even grouse to eat, but without hierarchical relationships: it’s just friends. I think he is recruiting a new team and the emergence of Vaino is the same as the appearance Dyumin and other security forces who came to their posts. They are much younger, all of them Mr President found out recently. They have no memories of Brezhnev and Yeltsin, they know only Putin. Young people, who all his life lived together with Putin, in fact, so it for their true boss, and not a friend. This change companions for people subordinates, this process will continue.
Vaino, first of all, the diplomat, and generally liked people from military and diplomatic circles that the paper is not forget that are all know the languages I know, which is important. [Alexei] Gromov of the diplomatic corps and [press Secretary of the President Dmitry] Peskov, so he picks people of this type is erudite, multilingual and very clear, always very clear. I think that over time, the presidential administration will become more technical tool than before.

Alexei Makarkin, Deputy Director of the Center for political technologies:

— Putin lived under Brezhnev, and he remembers what led gerontocracy, when Brezhnev remained his circle of trusted people with whom he was together at the front. The country lost competitiveness, dynamism, fell into stagnation. Putin does not want to be Brezhnev and wants to upgrade the team. Hence the resignation of Vladimir Yakunin, that started it all, Viktor Ivanov, Yevgeny Murov, etc.

Vaino is an experienced bureaucrat, diplomat, knowing foreign languages, but the last time he was actually the head of the office, i.e. a person who is always there. Ivanov and other members of Putin’s inner circle are the people of his generation. And Vaino, the new head of the Federal security service Dmitry Kochneva, the Tula Governor Alexei Putin Dyumin, conventionally, was always, with him they have risen to the highest position. This generation can not imagine a Russia without Putin. In addition, these are people who are always there — the staff, the security, Protocol. For these new people, Putin sacred figure.