At the auction of the Moscow exchange on Friday, August 12, the dollar rose in the morning to 38 kopecks., to RUB of 64.71, the European currency rose against the ruble: 13:00 GMT it has appreciated by 51 kopecks, to RUB 72,15 At its peak, the dollar rose to 64,88 RUB, EUR — RUB to 72,57 Political news — President Vladimir Putin announced the resignation of head of administration Sergey Ivanov — did not cause the reaction of the currency market: 18:03 GMT, the dollar was sold at the rate of 64,82 rubles (49 kopecks above the level of the opening), Euro of 72.48 RUB. (higher than the open price 85 COP.)
The weakening of the Russian currency, despite the continued rise in oil prices. On Thursday, the price of a barrel of Brent increased by 4.6%, for the first time since July 22, trading above $46. It happened after the journalists were sent out by mistake a draft of an interview with the Saudi energy Minister Khaled al-Faleh, in which he said that the Kingdom was ready to participate in coordinated actions to help the oil market to reach equilibrium. On Friday oil continued to rise in price, up to the middle of the day by 0.11%, to $46,04 per barrel to 18:00 MSK barrel Brеnt strengthened by 1%, to $46.5 per.
“The situation is abnormal — the ruble falls despite rise in oil prices. Probably before the weekend, market participants decided to enter into short positions to mitigate the risks,” says a currency trader “Renaissance Capital” Levon, Athanasian. He notes that in the foreign exchange market is characterized by a weak activity of market participants, momentum is small, so even a small purchase of dollars is reflected in current rates. “In General, everyone is waiting for further growth of the ruble, if oil prices continue to rise, we may see the dollar at RUB 64,25,” — he said.
Trader BKS Alexander Mulberger says that someone of the participants buying a currency. “We see that the market exhibited some large bids, but they are not from the Bank of Russia”, — he said. Analyst ING Bank Dmitry Polevoy does not exclude that the demand for currency can be associated with the fact that shareholders will convert the dividends into dollars and euros.
Non-residents get rid of ruble-denominated assets, said a trader at a major Bank. “Apparently, they fear in the short term the escalation of tensions over the Crimea and in the long term — strengthening of sanctions against Russia,” he said. In favor of this version say and comments of Western analysts. “It’s a good time to hedge ruble risks,” — said in the review of Danske Bank.
In General, analysts say that against the background of geopolitical risks raised due to recent events in Crimea, the ruble still looks weaker than it could be with such a significant increase in oil prices. “The ruble is falling behind in the pace of strengthening the dynamics of oil prices. Movements in the markets without a solid Foundation, so the purchase of foreign currency in the medium-term strategy now looks more interesting”, — considers the head of analytical Department of Bank “Zenith” Vladimir Evstifeev. According to analysts Sberbank CIB Tom Levinson and Iskander Lutsk, the aggravation of Russian-Ukrainian contradictions is fraught with significant risks for the ruble. “While this development does not affect the Russian ruble rate (to reflect, however, on quotations of Eurobonds of the two countries), but further escalation of tension, if there is a risk of new sanctions could provoke a major sale,” the company says in its review.
In Sberbank CIB believe that the ruble looks overbought: at current oil prices the dollar will trade in the range of 64.30–64,70 RUB With the price of a barrel to $46, the dollar needs to be at 65.5 rubles, says the Nordea Bank. “This means that the ruble is now trading above its equilibrium value,” — concludes the analyst Dmitry Savchenko. Mounting geopolitical tensions could put further pressure on the ruble, which recently looked quite strong, quotes Bloomberg words of the analyst of BNP Paribas SA Peter Huachuca.
At the same time experts do not exclude the further strengthening of the Russian currency. As suggested by the investment consultant “Finam” Alexander Lobanov, if oil will be able to gain a foothold above $46,6 per barrel, the dollar could fall to 63.5 rubles ruble Also unable to support the upcoming tax payments, which start from August 15, said Field. The volume of payments can be in the current month of 1.0–1.3 trillion rubles., cites Reuters.