“The variant effect”
In history, anything can happen <…> I would not want it to end, but if other options to influence the situation will not remain the President of such decision, probably, can make,” said Friday Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev on the question of whether the severance of diplomatic relations between Russia and Ukraine (quoted by the government website). The decision of the President, said the Prime Minister.
That in Moscow are considering the option of breaking off relations, wrote on Friday, “Izvestia” citing a source in the Russian foreign policy community.
Does not exclude the possibility of rupture of diplomatic relations, the Chairman of the Duma Committee on international Affairs Leonid Kalashnikov. Not to bring the relationship to reduce, Kiev should accept the candidacy of Ambassador of Russia (the place Mikhail Zurabov proposed Mikhail Babich), it is more meaningful to respond to the events in the Crimea, and not blame everything on Russia, and also to practice to show commitment to the Minsk agreements, says Kalashnikov.
Against the rupture of relations was made by the Minister of foreign Affairs of Ukraine Pavlo Klimkin. In an interview to “Interfax-Ukraine”, he explained that maintaining diplomatic relations with Russia allows us to help 4 million Ukrainians residing in Russia. And Ambassador at large MFA of Ukraine Dmitry Kuleba information about the possible rupture of diplomatic relations called “rumors” and “injection”.
The reason for the recent conflict were the events of August 7-8. In those days, as reported on Wednesday, the Federal security service of Russia, in the Crimea was disclosed by the Ukrainian group of saboteurs who were preparing attacks on the Peninsula. Security officials called the detained employees of the main intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of defense of Ukraine, during the shooting, if in detention, killed an FSB officer and member of the defense Ministry, reported to the FSB. Ukraine involvement of its security forces denied the incident and believes a random firefight between the FSB and the defense Ministry. The President of Russia Vladimir Putin after the events accused the Ukrainian authorities in the transition to terror and promised retaliation.
Countries without relations
Now the only member country of the UN, which Russia has no diplomatic relations, is Georgia. They were terminated at the initiative of the Georgian Parliament on 28 August 2008 after the armed conflict in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The interests of the parties since the idea of the Embassy of Switzerland in Russia and Georgia: officially it’s called section of interests at Embassy of Switzerland”.
In the XX century Russia (and before that the USSR), even in peacetime broke off relations with dozens of countries for a variety of reasons. For example, relations with Albania Moscow severed in the spring of 1939, when the country was actually occupied by Italy. After the war, relations were restored, but the ideological disputes by the fall of 1961 brought to the gap (until 1990).
With Israel in 1953 and the Congo in 1960, the relationship was broken only by a few months due to the Palestinian crisis and a military coup respectively. A week after the coup in Chile in the autumn of 1973, Moscow recalled the diplomatic corps of that country, but in March 1990, returned it the same day when his resignation was announced by the dictator Augusto Pinochet.
In the case of severance of diplomatic relations ambassadors and other diplomats recalled, and the government can communicate trade missions (most common method in the twentieth century) or with the mediation of other powers.
The Chairman of the Duma Committee on CIS Affairs Leonid Slutsky called the gap is only “theoretically possible”, although not eliminated it entirely. This step will give the West the opportunity of another attempt to marginalize Russia, worsen the image of the country, he pointed out the negative consequences of the translation relationship to another level comments in the “RIA Novosti”.
A source close to the presidential administration, doubts that the President will go on rupture of relations. Another source close to the Russian delegation at negotiations of the Trilateral contact group in Minsk, said that the words about the possibility of rupture of diplomatic relations is a warning to the Ukrainian authorities, but do not plan to be immediately implemented.
In Moscow now there is no need to break in diplomatic relations, and so they are actually frozen, explains the Deputy Director of the Institute of CIS countries Vladimir Zharikhin: in Moscow in 2014 there is no Ambassador of Ukraine, Kiev is in no hurry to consent to the arrival of the Russian Ambassador.
The breakup is more likely to go to Kiev, as President Petro Poroshenko needs to show that he is a strong leader, the expert believes.
Ukrainian MPs had publicly advocated the breakup. In March of this year a bill was filed by three deputies, including members of the Radical party and of the bloc of Petro Poroshenko”, but considered by the Parliament, he was not. Poroshenko then opposed the adoption of such a law.
According to Zharikhin, Moscow has reacted to Kiev’s actions in the Crimea are sensitive enough: refused the meeting in the Normandy format in China in early September. Changed attitude of the Russian President to the Ukrainian. On Wednesday, Putin accused “seized power in Kiev”, in that they continue to plunder the population. In the previous months so sharply against President Poroshenko has not publicly spoken.
Much more sensitive for Kiev would be the introduction of visas, suggests Zharikhin.
To refrain from any actions that could lead to an escalation of tensions, called on all parties to the Minister of foreign Affairs of Germany Frank-Walter Steinmeier. On Monday in Yekaterinburg, he will discuss the situation in Ukraine with his Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov. In turn, Vice-the President of the USA Joseph Biden called President Poroshenko to contribute to avoid the escalation of tensions”.
Lull in the Donbas
The incident in the Crimea have not yet led to the intensification of the war in the East of Ukraine.
According to the Ukrainian military and the military of the breakaway republics, the situation in the Donbas after the terrorist attack prevented fundamentally has not changed. According to Deputy commander of the operational command of the self-proclaimed Donetsk people’s Republic Eduard Basurin, the military recorded a decline in the intensity of shelling from the Ukrainian territory.
Says Eduard Basurin, a lull due to the arrival of the Deputy head of the OSCE mission in Donetsk. “During the visit we recorded 200 to 300 attacks per day, now increased to 600,” says Bacurin.
Ukrainian intelligence recorded in the ATO zone from 5 to 11 August, 383 fire — 29 less than a week earlier. According to the reports about the situation on the territory of the ATO, for the last week increased the number of used rebels unmanned aerial vehicles. Scouts noticed 24 departure from 5th to 11th Aug and 13 — from 29 July to 4 August.
In addition to the drones, according to the Ukrainian scouts, in the area worked for the Russian aircraft Il-20. “In the airspace of the sea of Azov and Rostov region marked activity of reconnaissance aircraft Il-20 Russian Armed forces, which are able to explore to a depth of 400 km,” — said on the Agency’s website.