The average annual exchange rate of the dollar by 2020 will be RUB 52,8 is indicated in the forecast of the Bank. This will contribute to rising oil prices and increased exports from Russia, according to a survey.
In years 2017-2019 VEB expects economic recovery with an average annual rate of 1.3%, which will be based on the rise in oil prices. In 2020, the growth rate may rise to 2.5%, said the state Corporation. The price of oil in 2017-2020 may consolidate in the range of $50-60 per barrel, what will contribute to increase the growth rate of world economy projected at the review. Inflation due to stronger currency and moderate recovery in consumer demand will decrease to 4.9% in 2017 and beyond will not exceed 4%, according to the VEB.
However, the review noted the likelihood of a new wave of global recession and the fall in world oil prices in late 2018 and 2019, ten years after the previous global crisis. “In the case of this scenario the Russian economy will be different”, — stated in the review.
Chief economist of Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova considers the forecast of the web by the ruble unrealistic. “I expect values of the order of 70 rubles per dollar by the year 2020, based on fundamental factors, because oil prices are difficult to predict at this period. After the depreciation of the national currency up to 80 rubles per dollar”, — says Orlov.
According to forecasts Orlova, rate is 53 RUB for one dollar by 2020, the economy needs to grow by 4-5% annually, and inflation should be within 2%. “Potential growth is now around 0%, and I can’t imagine that to happen a change that would have forced the economy to grow at a rapid pace,” — said Orlov.
Do not agree with the forecast and the Director of the Institute of strategic analysis FBK Igor Nikolaev. “We have entered a long cycle of low commodity prices. In the next few years a barrel of oil will not cost more than $50. While exports would grow in conditions of higher oil prices”, — said Nikolaev.