Industrial production in Russia fell for the first time in four months

Industrial production in Russia declined after three consecutive months of increase. The index of industrial production in July fell 0.3% compared to the same month last year, has informed on Monday Rosstat. The figure dropped even in comparison with the previous month, excluding seasonal and calendar factors. Adjusted index of industrial production fell in June by 0.9% — the largest monthly decline since April 2015, follows from the data of Rosstat.

Mining in July 2016 increased by 1.8% compared to the previous year, and in comparison with June — to 3%. Manufacturing, on the contrary, decreased by 1.5% compared to July last year, and compared to the previous month by 1.4%.

In July, Rosstat reported that industrial production in Russia in the second quarter of 2016 grew in annual terms by 1%. It was the first quarterly growth figure since the end of 2014. But the Bank of Russia noted that the dynamics of industrial production remains fragile, and the key to the beginning of the industry recovery will be stabilization of the manufacturing sector, which is still “floats” between the plus and minus. In July business activity in the manufacturing sector resumed its decline, showed earlier, the index PMI, calculated by Markit, so the fresh data of Rosstat came as no surprise.

Any trend in the industry to speak while early, considers the leading expert of the Center of the HSE Mykola Kondrashov. In his opinion, “the dynamics of the manufacturing industries, as industry is stagnating, just the values oscillate: in June it was up and down in July. “In July there was a negative calendar factor, working days were not enough, smaller than usual (21 working days. —), — explains the expert. — In August, on the contrary, is a powerful stock calendar factor, most likely in August we will see a rebound (23 working days. —)”. If in August, despite the factor of the calendar, will be reduced or zero dynamics, “it will be to talk about something,” says Kondrashov.