Moody’s has warned that increasing tensions in Russian-Ukrainian relations may adversely affect the credit rating of Russia, which is from February 2015 located on “junk” level of Ba1 (speculative elements and substantial credit risk”).
The anxiety of Agency experts called the possibility of an escalation of the conflict on the border with the Crimea, where, as reported last week, the FSB prevented the terrorist attacks, who were preparing subversive groups of the Ukrainian intelligence.
“In that case, if the collision starts on the territory of Crimea and in the Donbass intensified, the international sanctions will probably become tougher and will be extended, it will resume capital flight and weaken the ruble, which ultimately will jeopardize the economic recovery of Russia, warns Moody’s.
Moody’s experts note that after the onset of relative calm on the territory of Donbass economy and financial markets gradually stabilized, despite continuing volatility of the oil market that, in particular, resulted in the strengthening of the ruble. However, the escalation of the military conflict can dramatically worsen the situation.
“If a military conflict will continue to escalate, the recent achievements of the Russian Federation in the economy can be turned back,” warns Moody’s.
At the end of February 2015, Moody’s downgraded the sovereign credit rating of Russia to Ba1 with a negative Outlook. In April 2016, the rating was maintained at the same level, contrary to the predictions of his possible decline
The decision not to revise the rating downwards Moody’s experts explained that the Russian economy has demonstrated resilience in the face of falling oil prices earlier in the year, as well as the adjustment budget.