The dollar and the Euro on the Moscow stock exchange rose sharply shortly before 15:00 GMT. For a few minutes, the dollar rose by about 40 COP., reaching at the maximum level 64,195 RUB, by 37 kopecks. above the closing level on Wednesday. Simultaneously, the Euro jumped about 50 kopecks, reaching 72,6375 RUB.
Senior economist at Danske Bank Vladimir miklashevskii linked the jump in exchange rates, with the words of the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko that Kiev does not exclude the military invasion by Russia. “The Russian ruble and Eurobonds fell, when Poroshenko said that Ukraine does not exclude full-scale war with Russia”, — wrote miklashevskii on Twitter.
“The ruble is quite weak after the statement Poroshenko about the possibility of armed conflict with Russia”, — agrees trader “Renaissance Capital” Levon, Athanasian. “After this statement for 30-40 minutes observed the purchase of foreign currency, but then the panic subsided,” he said .
According to Atanesyan, the ruble, which now looks weak amid rising above $50 oil price by the evening can win back losses by returning to the opening level of the market. “This can happen if no new harsh political statements. Otherwise, the ruble may continue to fall,” — said the trader.
Trader FK “Opening” Aram Ghazaryan confirmed that after Poroshenko’s statements, some investors reduced their positions in Russian bonds, but about the complete withdrawal of Russian assets it, according to him, is not.
“The players will not take the news so seriously that completely out of Russian assets. Think tonight — tomorrow the impact of this statement disappears, but the real market reaction will be if you start a military escalation”, — said Ghazaryan.
Chief economist at Eurasian development Bank Yaroslav Lissovolik called fluctuations within 0.5% of “volatility coming back in the opposite direction.” “Now for the ruble remain more significant external economic background, namely the rhetoric from the fed about rates and oil prices”, — the economist believes.
The main readers of world news are robots, and when the tape begins to receive a stream of information containing the words of the military conflict, the robots react instantly and the stock prices fall, says General Director of “Sputnik — capital Management” Alexander Losev. “In my opinion, in today’s drop in the ruble’s nothing serious or dangerous, and this is only the intraday motion. The ruble is now fairly stable due to the positive dynamics of oil ruble and attractive interest rates in comparison with close to zero in dollars, which is a natural desire of investors to play the carry trade. Statements Poroshenko will remain, as now will not be backed up by any real military power nor the political support of the international community,” says Losev.
16:35 MSK cost of a barrel of Brent crude on the ICE futures exchange was $50.3 per dollar on the Moscow stock exchange fell to 63,7625 Euro — RUB to 72,1425