The unemployment rate in Russia, calculated on methodology of the International labour organization (ILO) in July 2016 5.3% (of 4.125 million unemployed), according to the monthly report of Rosstat published on Tuesday. The number of people without work declined for the fourth month in a row, despite the fact that the economy remains in recession.
The last time the unemployment rate in Russia was lower than the current rate in September of last year — while the unemployment rate was 5.2% (in July and August 2015 was 5,3%). Since then it steadily increased and reached a peak in March and amounted to 6% (the highest value since January 2013, and then went into decline. Falls and the level of officially registered unemployment: as reported by the Ministry of labor, on August 1, it was 1.2% is the lowest reading since November 2015.
Unemployment in Russia, reduced in conditions of ongoing recession. In the overwhelming number of regions are reduced to five basic sectors of the economy or growing just one, mentioned earlier in their report, the experts of the Institute “development Center” Higher school of Economics (HSE). According to Rosstat, GDP declined in the second quarter of 2016, 0.6% relative to the same period of the previous year, and this was the sixth consecutive quarter of recession.
The phenomenon of discrepancy of the economic situation and unemployment in Russia has drawn the attention of economists of the British consulting firm Capital Economics. In his report, which was written about by Bloomberg, experts have noted that Russian companies instead of having to lay off employees, cut their salaries, are sent on unpaid leave or transferred to part-time.
“The Russian labor market has different mechanisms of adaptation to adjust to the crisis, as [it does this] not so much due to the quantitative adjustment, but rather due to price and time. This crisis response was exactly,” confirms in the comments of the Deputy Director of the Centre for labour market studies HSE Rostislav Kapelyushnikov. A person can work full time, but get 8 thousand rubles, adds the head of the Center for social policy Institute of Economics Eugene Gontmakher. “The Russian worker agree on the deterioration of their own working conditions,” he says.
At Capital Economics also emphasize that the jobs in Russia have lost people who are employed in the informal economy, and many of them simply left no trace in official statistics. In particular, we are talking about foreigners, not formalized. Rosstat does not take into account employment in the grey area, so to treat the unemployment rate according to ILO methodology “seriously” impossible, Gontmakher agrees. On the other hand, a survey of Rosstat employment exists in both the formal and the informal sector, argues Kapelyushnikov.
The current improvements are explained only by seasonality, says Kapelyushnikov. “Almost every year is the same pattern. Peak unemployment in February-March, then it starts to decrease and reaches a minimum in August-September and starts to go up,” he recalls.