Analysts estimated the impact of sabotage in the Crimea on the Russian economy


The growth of tension in relations between Russia and Ukraine after the FSB announced the prevention prepared by Kiev terrorist attacks in the Crimea, may delay recovery prospects of the Russian economy, writes Bloomberg with reference to the results of a survey of 21 economists.

More than three quarters (76%) of respondents believe that the escalation of the conflict will affect investors ‘ confidence. 62% of analysts believe that it will strengthen the capital outflow from Russia.

The survey showed that the number of analysts predicting the lifting of sanctions against Russia for 12 months, declined, Bloomberg reported. If a month ago, 19% of respondents believed that the United States will lift sanctions in the coming year, by now there remained only 10%. Early lifting of sanctions by the European Union for the year now expected that 52% of respondents, whereas the previous survey, this view was held by 69%.

“Given the extension of EU sanctions to start in 2017 and the recent hawkish statements of the Chancellor of Germany [the Angels] Merkel we see only a small chance of easing sanctions in horizon of one year”, — said the Agency economist of Raiffeisen Bank International AG, Vienna Andreas Schwab. According to him, for any easing of Western sanctions against Russia “need to show some flexibility in their position, what is currently happening.

The growing tension in relations with Ukraine will contribute to the preservation of Western sanctions have a negative impact on investor confidence and will hamper the inflow of foreign capital, says a senior analyst with Informa Global Markets Christopher Shils. “All this will weaken the ruble and forced the Central Bank to move to a more cautious hawkish tone,” he warns.

FSB August 10, announced in Crimea, preventing terrorist attacks, which, according to his statement, prepared Main intelligence Directorate of the defense Ministry of Ukraine. The President of Russia Vladimir Putin, commenting on this, said that the Ukrainian authorities are “not looking for a way to solve problems in negotiations, and transferred to the terror.” In turn, the President of Ukraine Petro Poroshenko called the accusations in the use of terrorist methods “fantasies”.

In mid-August, rating Agency Moody’s warned that the escalation of the situation in Crimea may negatively affect the credit rating of Russia, which is from February 2015 located on “junk” level of Ba1. “In that case, if the collision starts on the territory of Crimea and in the Donbass intensified, the international sanctions will probably become tougher and will be extended, it will resume capital flight and weaken the ruble, which ultimately will jeopardize the economic recovery of Russia”, — said Moody’s.

 

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