In addition to the basic variant of the forecast of Ministry of economic development has developed 2017-2019 another option for budget projections, denoted as “basic plus” which contains a higher oil price, write “Vedomosti”. As said the publication of four Federal officials, this option the Ministry will propose as the basis for the budget.
The newspaper learned about the main indicators that option. If the baseline forecast still assumes the price of a barrel $40 for the three-year period, the “basic plus” implies a higher price: $50 in 2017 and $55 in 2018-2019.
One of the officials explained to the publication that the price of oil at $40 per barrel, the budget will remain razbalansirovat, its deficit significantly exceeds the proposed Ministry of Finance of 3.2%. Therefore, the possibility put in a higher price. “With this budget and monetary policy the demand will shrink to negative values, the funds will end. There will be nothing,” — said a source and added that it is already clear that $40 will not be more.
One of the Federal officials said that among the officials there are “a sect of oil at $40 and there is a group that believes in oil at $50-55. “Pray for oil, and the reforms to do no one. If the oil is below [$50-55] — nothing, tighten up!”, — he concluded.
The interlocutors of “Vedomosti” also noted that another solution was the idea to continue to plan it only for one year since when planning three-year budget seen all the problems. However, according to him, this was opposed by the Finance Ministry, the Agency insists on planning three-year budget.
Previously, “Vedomosti, citing Federal officials from different agencies, wrote that the draft budget for 2017, the government may prepare as an annual. According to sources, to develop realistic three-year budget necessary to consider all the decisions of the tax and pension system, which can be accepted after 2018. In addition, to mark up the budget for three years prevented the elections, said one of the interlocutors edition.
Russian legislation provides for the adoption of the budget for three years. September 30, 2015, President Vladimir Putin signed a law providing for the development and adoption of an annual budget for 2016. The act also provides for the abolition of fiscal rules in 2016 — the requirements for identifying the total expenditure budget for the next financial year and planning period.