The Ministry of Finance to the meeting with first Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov has prepared a budget forecast that assumes tax increases, revenue mobilization and the exhaustion of sovereign wealth funds in three years, “Vedomosti” reports with reference to the seven Federal officials. From materials of the Ministry, according to the publication, it follows that only the 2017-2019 biennium. the Finance Ministry wants to collect in the budget of nearly 2.5 trillion rubles.
According to the Ministry, in 2017, you can get an additional 670 billion rubles in 2019 — nearly 1 trillion rubles to Collect the money the Ministry of Finance offers from oil companies, “Gazprom”, tobacco producers, and the imposition of excise tax the excise tax on drinks with added sugar and VAT on e-Commerce, but also due to the large dividends from state-owned companies.
Mobilization, write “Vedomosti”, we need to reduce the budget deficit by 1 percentage point annually — from 3.2% next year to 1.2% of GDP in 2019. To cut costs the Ministry of Finance, as recalled by the publication, since the decision to install them on all three years in the amount 15,787 trillion a year. Hole at projected income for three years will be 60% larger than the target deficit, which increases by another 3.5 trillion rubles.
The proposals of the Ministry cut the hole to 1 trillion of Free money in sovereign wealth funds is not enough. From the calculations of the Ministry of Finance should, after a reserve Fund in 2017 will have to spend money from the national welfare Fund, and for 2018 the reserves almost exhausted.
In this regard, how to write “Vedomosti”, the Ministry of Finance has put forward “some ideas on where to look for money.” This is not suggestions on how to raise taxes, and ideas for discussion, said the Federal official. Among them — an increase of 1 percentage point each of the key taxes — income, property tax, VAT, personal income tax and insurance contributions. It will bring the budgets of 170 billion to 324 billion rubles.
Possible more radical changes. Progressive scale of personal income tax, says the Finance Ministry, create risks for shadowing and distortion of the situation on the labor market, the alternative of this is the growth of a single personal income tax rate to 15-16% and the introduction of non-taxable minimum.
The increase in income tax might lead to increased capital burden, reducing the attractiveness of the investment and the unclear future of economic growth. Will negatively affect it and increase tax on property of organizations.
Among the proposals and the reform of the insurance premiums to charge them with all the payroll completely and at the same rate. The Finance Ministry noted that the changes will result in the load growth, especially in industries with high earnings and this will lead to the loss of income tax and personal income tax, increasing the burden on the budget. There is a risk of nursing salaries in the shadow, unifying framework for collection of contributions would have a negative impact on economic growth.
As compensation it was proposed to reduce the rate to 29% in 2018, and in 2019 — 28%, according to two officials. One of them notes that the unification of rates of up to 29% without adjustment of the whole pension system is a dangerous decision. According to the second, such changes will lead to increased load on the sectors with the most qualified labor.
The Finance Ministry proposes another option — maneuver — reduced premiums in exchange for the VAT increase. The Federal official recalled that the idea of the Ministry to reduce insurance premiums up to 20% and at the same time to raise the VAT to 24% was discussed in the summer.
According to calculations of the Ministry of Finance, the increase in the VAT rate by 1 percentage point brings an additional 220 billion rubles. Front the VAT increase leads to inflation, additional 1 percentage point of inflation is 120 billion rubles of additional budget expenditures in the form of indexation of social benefits. Another option is the abolition of privileges and payment of targeted social support for the poor.
One of the interlocutors of the newspaper notes that the amendments on insurance contributions was proposed to adopt in the current year, that they earned in two years. The Federal official says that you need to be prepared for the entry into force of some amendments from 1 July 2018 or early 2019.
It was proposed at a meeting with Shuvalov also ways to save. In particular, how to tell the two officials discussed the idea of not paying pensions to working pensioners. It was about the abolition of pensions for those earning up to 500 thousand rubles a year, or up to the average Russian salary – 35,8 thousand in January — July this year. The interlocutors of “Vedomosti” tell us that the meeting fell on proposing this idea to the criticism and accusations of misanthropy.
According to the official financial-economic bloc, the increase of VAT and personal income tax is unlikely — it is necessary to consider not only budget, but also the socio-political situation. He says higher chances at a progressive scale of personal income tax in 2019 and completion of the tax maneuver in the oil industry.
One of the officials stressed that none of the proposed measures while not even discuss. According to him, Shuvalov and Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich was unhappy that the Finance Ministry came out with such sweeping proposals.
Official financial-economic bloc said that the proposals for personal income tax, old. Another official notes that the proposals for VAT and income tax is also not new. They were discussed in the spring. Then it was decided that “any backspin taxes harmful and untimely”.
Three participants reported that the Finance Ministry has sent to count and to think. The representative of the Ministry in turn said that he considered various proposals, but none of them had been taken; the Ministry will send the draft budget only at the end of September.
The government continues discussion of budget parameters for the next three years, reported “Interfax” Shuvalov. According to him, the Finance Ministry’s proposals to mobilize additional revenues is not taken. “The government continues work on the budget for 2017 and 2018-2019 years”, — he stressed.