Moscow. August 30. The Ministry of economic development worsened the forecast of a decline in GDP in 2016, up to 0.6% from 0.2%, the inflation Outlook improved to 5.8% from 6.5%, write “Vedomosti” with reference to calculations of Ministry of economic development according to the revised forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation for the years 2016-2019, which the Ministry submitted for discussion to the Ministry of Finance.
The forecast of the average annual price of oil in 2016 even increased slightly to $41 versus $40 at the April forecast.
As reported, according to the Ministry, the decline of the Russian economy in July deepened to 0.7% on year vs. 0.5% in June and 0.6% in may, while in January-July amounted to 0.9%. The new forecast of Ministry of economic development is more consistent with expectations, the Central Bank revised down by 0.3-0.7% in 2016, closer to the analysts ‘ expectations – the consensus forecast, prepared in late July, expected a decline of 0.8% in 2016.
The forecast for GDP growth to 2017 in the baseline scenario, the Ministry also slightly degraded by growth of 0.6% from 0.8% in 2018 to 1.7% from 1.8% in 2019 to 2.1% from 2.2%.
This is the first draft of the revised forecast, which the government Commission on budgetary planning needs to be considered in the end of September.
The base variant of the forecast is still calculated with the price of oil at $40 a barrel in the years 2017-2019. While the Ministry has prepared a script of “basic plus” – $50 in 2017 and $55 in 2018-2019, which, according to the newspaper, the Ministry proposes to take for the basis for calculating the budget for 2017-2019, but a Finance Ministry official with this objection – “what if no (the price does not rise up to these values)?”.
A Federal official, which refers to the edition notes that in a scenario of $40 per barrel, the budget deficit in 2017 may exceed 3.2% of GDP, which focuses on the Ministry of Finance, so it is advisable to lay a higher price, since “it is obvious that prices will be above $40 a barrel.
“Among the officials there is a sect of oil at $40 and there is a group that believes in oil at $50-55. Pray for oil, and the reforms to do no one. If oil falls below $50-55, nothing, tighten up the course”, – quote “Vedomosti” Federal official.
In the scenario “basic plus” course Ministry of economic development expects a higher trend of GDP compared to the baseline – an increase of 1.1%, 2.1% and 2.4% in years 2017-2019, respectively.
Compared to 2015 the Russian economy in 2019 will grow by 3.8% in the baseline and 5.8% in a “base plus” scenarios of economic development vs. 14.1% expected growth over this period in the world economy.
The inflation forecast for 2017 -2019 years in the baseline scenario has not changed and stands at 4.9% (in the April version was also 4,9%), 4,4% (4,5%) and 4.1% (4%), respectively. In the “basic plus” scenario is expected inflation at 4.6%, 4.2% and 3.9% in years 2017-2019, respectively.
The forecast for the dollar exchange rate in the baseline scenario also has not undergone any changes – 67 rubles per dollar in 2016 (was 67.2 per RUB), 65 roubles (RUB 64,8) in 2017, RUB 64,6 (64,1 RUB) in 2018, 64,1 RUB (RUB 62,7) in 2019. In the “base plus” scenarios because of the higher oil prices expected and a more rapid strengthening of the ruble – up to 61,1 RUB in 2017, 59 RUB. in 2018 and 58.7 RUB in 2019.