ASV twice lowered the forecast on growth of deposits in banks in 2016

The Agency on insurance of contributions (ASV) has revised its forecast of growth of deposits for 2016, reducing it by half. In March, it was estimated that is hosted in Russian banks funds of individuals for the year will grow by 14-16%, according to the updated forecast their volume will increase by 7-9% (in nominal terms), reported in the Corporation. As a result, the deposits for the year will grow by 1.6–2.1 trillion RUB to 24.8 and 25.3 per trillion.

The Central Bank still retains the earlier forecast, said the press service of the Central Bank. The regulator had forecast a growth of deposits by 15% by the end of 2016, announced in March, the Chairman of the Central Bank Mikhail Sukhov.

In 2015 contributions with regard to currency revaluation, increased by 10.8% (excluding currency revaluation 18.7%), to 23.2 trillion roubles Dynamics of savings activity of Russians this year were significantly lower. According to the first of August this year, the banking sector has 23.5 trillion rubles of household deposits, while on the first of January they were to 18.6 trillion rubles. Thus, according to the Central Bank, for seven months of this year the volume of savings of population in banks grew by only 1%, without adjustment for currency revaluation — 3.3%.

The Agency expects in its conservative forecast of the preservation of weak first half of the year on deposits. “Keep in mind that usually the growth of deposits in the second half of the year,” recalls managing Director, “Expert RA” on Bank ratings Stanislav Volkov.

Low rates and incomes

Most likely, the Agency reduced the forecast based on actual statistics, said Fitch analyst Alexander Danilov. “The most important factor in the reduction of the forecast — decrease in rates on deposits against the background of growth of excess liquidity in the banking sector and reduction of the key rate”, — said Volkov. In June of this year the Bank of Russia for the first time since the summer of 2015 lowered its key rate by 0.5 percentage points to 10.5%. This was followed by their interest rate policy started to change and banks. Since the beginning of the year, the maximum yield of deposits in the top 10 largest credit institutions decreased from 9.9 to 8.74%. This is the lowest level since the end of may 2014, when she also was of 8.74%.

The next wave of falling interest rates came in July: as he wrote in mid-summer, nine of the 15 largest by volume of deposits banks have reduced rates on deposits due to the increase of reserve requirements of the Central Bank. For ruble deposits, the reserve ratio increased from 4.25 to 5%, on currency — from 5.25 to 6%. “Now there is stagnation in the credit market, so banks are not experiencing an acute need for constant growth resources, says the Deputy Chairman of the Board Loko-Bank Andrey lyushin.

Because of this, many middle class citizens began to look to alternative instruments of savings — for example, buying bonds, says Volkov. earlier, referring to RAEX (Expert RA) wrote about the fact that the market of trust management recorded a record number of customers — 25.7 thousand people, and for the year customer additions reached 12 thousand people. In the hands of the 15 largest UK were focused more 231,52 billion. the small Number of total contributors, however, we must remember that about a third of the volume of all Bank deposits account for VIP investors (more than 5 million rubles).

“Mass client becomes unprofitable to keep money on Deposit — this tool is gradually becoming exclusively a mechanism of preservation and accumulation, not of making money, and people do not hurry to carry money in banks”, — adds the Deputy Chairman of the Board Loko-Bank Andrey lyushin. “Those who have savings and who are willing to moderate risk, become customers of brokers whose client base is growing steadily because of the possibility to get greater return with minimal risk” — agrees analyst NRA Karina Artemyev.

Also contributed to the decline in interest rates on foreign currency deposits to almost zero, says Volkov. Against this background, citizens will prefer to keep their money at home or in Bank vaults than to risk putting them on Bank deposits, he said. According to the Bank, the share of deposits in foreign currency is 26.5% on August 1, and is a significant part, says Volkov. “In addition, from the statistics leave deposits of banks with revoked license, and in the first half it had lost such major players as Russia and “Interkommerts” — he added.

In addition, incomes have fallen. So, in July 2016, the real income of the average Russian fell by 7%, according to the material of Rosstat. The last time so fast incomes declined in may 2015. Therefore, the explosive growth of the deposits up to the end of the year should not be expected, said Alexander Danilov from Fitch. As evidenced by the citizens survey prepared by the Central Bank, only 18% believe that now is a good time for savings, against 47% who are confident that to save now is not the time.