In the opinion of the majority of strategists, guaranteed on party lists in the Duma will be four parties. “United Russia”, CPRF and LDPR hit in the reconvening of the lower chamber of the predicted 100%, “Fair Russia” — 70% of the spin doctors. The remaining 30% believe that the party can overcome the five percent barrier needed to enter the lower house of Parliament.
These are the findings of a survey in which from 1 to 6 September held a Committee on political technologies of the Russian Association on public relations (RASO) among its 50 participants and which will be presented on Wednesday.
In the previous similar report of 13 July guaranteed passage to the Duma experts had been expecting only three parties. Then the spin doctors were less confident in the prospects for spravedlivorossov. 45% of respondents were not sure even that the socialist-revolutionaries is possible to overcome the five percent barrier. Among the reasons experts are called minor core constituency of the socialist-revolutionaries, vague ideology and the lack of bright leaders.
However, weak performance of non-parliamentary parties that are unable to use the chance to unwind in the course of the campaign, led to a rise in the optimism of technologists about get into Parliament the party of Sergey Mironov, says the report.
Projects that could siphon votes from SRS were not very convincing during the election campaign, says the Chairman of the Committee Yevgeny Minchenko.
“Party of Pensioners” is present in the agenda only by name, but not conducting an active campaign, “homeland” is also not found his nerve, he explained.
“Apple”, he said, also are unable to delay democratic electorate, who in 2011 voted for the SRS according to the principle of “not for United Russia”. The reason is that they do not have to focus on a strong Federal ten list, and “remained the group of follower Yavlinsky,” said the expert.
In addition, the “Fair Russia” the situation has improved with sponsors and commercial candidates for financial support for parties in the report it second only to the “United Russia”.
The chances of other parties
Also, according to the strategists a chance to overcome the 5% is the party “Rodina” (so say 20%), Apple (15%) and “party of pensioners for justice” (10%). More likely, experts estimate the chances of these three parties to overcome the 3% barrier. Getting 3% of the vote gives parties a right to government funding, and admission to the following state Duma elections and elections in regional parliaments, without collecting signatures.
The antilinear rating according to experts according to lists of parties — “Civil force”, which all 100% of respondents tipped less than 3% of the vote. Also the vast majority of respondents do not believe that more than 3% gain “Communists of Russia”, “Patriots of Russia” “Party of Growth” PARNASSUS, “Green” and “Civic platform”.
Prospects of single-mandate
According to the expected number of single-mandate in the state Duma, the consultants also gave the first four places of the parliamentary parties.
In their opinion, “United Russia” will hold in the lower chamber 160 to 180 nominees in the districts, the Communist party — from 15 to 35, the SRS will go from seven to 15 seats, candidates from LDPR — one to ten seats.
The chance to spend one or two single-mandate the experts also gave the “Homeland” and “Apple”, from one to three — Party Growth. The politechnology made that pass in the Duma can also one single-seat districts from “Green”, PARNASSUS, the Communists of Russia and “Civil platform”. “Patriots of Russia” can either not occupy any space, or take up to two, the report said.
Hypothetically, the Duma can go to 12 parties, but experts believe that such parties will most likely eight or nine, said Minchenko.
Will someone from the non-parliamentary parties to break into the Duma, depends on how they can mobilize voters at the finish of the campaign, said political analyst Alexander Kynev. In low turnout and high number of undecided voters at the finish line there may be surprises, he said.
At this point they have not very high chances, he said. The reason is entered for the last restrictions in the electoral legislation, in which many candidates were cut off from the election. The second factor that influenced the situation before the election, was the crisis and the lack of financial capacity for professional consultants, he said.
On 18 September, Russia held elections of the state Duma. They will be held under a mixed system: 225 deputies are elected on party lists, 225 — as odnomandatniki.