Despite the stagnation in the Russian industry a record number of businesses believe they are all “normal.” Index adaptation industry (the share of enterprises evaluating their performance as normal) in the third quarter of 2016 increased to a maximum of 23 years of observations, says in the August monitoring of the economic situation in Russia prepared by the Russian Academy of national economy and the economic policy Institute named Gaidar.
The index reached 74 points, although I did not rise above 72, writes head of business surveys Department, center for Real sector Gaidar Institute Sergey Tsukhlo. The result is unexpected: it turns out that the business believes the situation in the industry the best from the mid-1990s, surprised Tsukhlo.
During the last crisis (2008-2009), the index of adaptation of the industry has shown a sharp negative trend, having fallen by 20 points in late 2008 — early 2009, follows from the data of the Gaidar Institute. However, in 2010, he consistently is around the same level and is now reached a record. The current historic highs, the index reached “at the expense of almost all of the included benchmarks,” States the review. “The industry simply adapted to stagnation, since there is no crisis of the fall of the 2008-2009 model years did not happen, despite all the panic, which raised the officials and analysts in the January—March 2015,” says Tsukhlo in the comments .
Industrial production in Russia in annual terms fell in the fourth quarter of 2014, and only in the second quarter of 2016 it has shown a slight increase — by 1%. In July, however, again there is a negative dynamics of the index of industrial production fell by 0.3% compared to July of last year, according to Rosstat.
But Russian industry with each passing quarter, more and more assesses their performance as “normal”. So, about satisfaction with the finished goods inventory in the third quarter, said 78% of enterprises, according to the monitoring of the Ranepa, manufacturers in General are pleased with demand for its products. Estimates of its volume grew to a crisis high of 55%, while in the first quarter of this year recorded times of crisis at least. Then the industry, “yielding constantly sounding assertions that start economic growth and are unable to find it, are disappointed in the potential demand for their products,” writes Tsukhlo. He suggests that the situation began to improve, as the industry probably realize that speedy economic growth should not wait and began to be content with little”.
According to Tsukhlo, enterprises from the beginning of the current crisis actually occurred “modest” crisis standards of changes, in particular a small drop in output and demand. To them, the industry was prepared and morally, and organizationally”, and considered the situation “normal”, indicates the expert.
Its financial-economic situation of the industry is also assessed in a positive way: 82% of enterprises, according to the study, are in good or satisfactory condition. The supply capacity has increased to 76%, close to the historical high of 78%.
Only one index adaptation in the third quarter showed a decline — assessment of the companies existing number of employees. The staffing fell by 5 percentage points to 75%. However, the situation in this area is better than in previous crises: in 1996, the estimate of employment rate falls to 51 percent in 2009 to 59%. The record for the time of observation of security personnel (since 1996) has also been made during the current crisis, it was 80%.
The “rarity” of the current crisis is confirmed by the statistics on unemployment indicates Tsukhlo (according to Rosstat, the unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, which was the lowest rate since October 2015). During the crisis the company did not massively lay off workers, since it would be “reckless” given the shortage of skilled workers, he concluded.