A week and a half before the election of the state Duma (will take place on 18 September) the first Deputy head of the presidential administration Vyacheslav Volodin met with 20 Russian scientists. The event took place at the site close to the Kremlin development Fund civil society (headed by the former head of the political administration of the presidential administration, Konstantin Kostin), it was attended by politicians of different views from the leaders of the Fcsd, and other Pro-Kremlin Fund ISAPI to the expert of the Moscow Carnegie centre Nikolai Petrov. Volodin himself now participates in the elections: it is included in the election list of “United Russia” and even was forced to go on leave.
Where the rating fell
The participants talked about the decline of the rating of “United Russia”, but Volodin did not agree with them. The trend of “multi-vector”, he said. “In some areas it [the trend] is flat, in several regions, including St. Petersburg, falling in parts of the territories, including Moscow, growing”, — classified Volodin.
The fall occurs in the regions where United Russia did not nominate their candidates in single-mandate constituencies, giving their opposition, says Kremlin official. All such districts 18. Local United Russia candidates on the party list, it is impossible to replace single-seat districts, which tightly interact with all voters, should the words Volodina. “Do not put forward a single-seat districts — the results there will be less. And rating from this party will be reduced”, — he said.
In General, the campaign “United Russia” is now more successful than at the previous elections of the state Duma 2011, insisted the Kremlin official. Now the ratings are higher than they were in 2011 two weeks before the election, he said. If United Russia will get 40 to 44%, it will be for her good result, said the source close to the leadership of United Russia. The result from 44 to 48% is very good, he said.
Earlier, the Levada center has registered a sharp decline of the rating of “United Russia”. In the beginning of the year for the party were ready to vote about 40% of the electorate, and already the end of August, the intention was expressed by only 31% of the total electorate. But among those who are willing to come to the polls, the share of the party higher — about 50%. Other social scientists also recorded a decrease, but, according to FOM and VTSIOM, it is not strong enough (party rating exceeds 40%, it follows from recent surveys of these services).
Volodin answered questions about the overall progress of the election campaign. Political analyst Rostislav Turovsky said that the campaign “not enough energy”, and another expert, Alexei Chadayev, said that the party, including United Russia, not trying to expand the boundaries of the electorate and in the end, “the whole campaign is the primaries about who will be the opposition.”
Volodin explained by the fact that United Russia has chosen a neat strategy of the campaign. “The tactics of the “United Russia” is likely connected with the desire to hold a sterile campaign,” he said. Otherwise, the campaign would be the mobilization and the party’s task is not to mobilize and conduct a flawless campaign, he said.
All participants talked about the growth of the rating of the liberal democratic party, which has a theoretical chance to get around the Communist party. Volodin attributed this to the fact that the party leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky has changed the approach to the management of the campaign. “Went outrageous, conflicts with the agenda of the state,” said the Kremlin official.
The head of CPT Igor Bunin explained the trend the fact that some liberal-minded voters don’t want to go against the government and public opinion and therefore choose the liberal democratic party as an alternative to the European oriented parties. Yevgeny Minchenko, the head of “Minchenko consulting”, spoke about the strengthening of nationalism throughout the world, and hence the increase in rating of the liberal democratic party, he insisted. It is likely the loss of positions by the Communists, who had long been enemies due to the “opposition version of patriotism,” said Alexei Zudin, a member of the expert Council of the Fund ISAPI. After the annexation of Crimea version of patriotism from the Communists devalued, said the expert. The Patriotic agenda, which was previously monopolized by the Communist party, now moved to the “United Russia”, LDPR and other parties, agreed Volodin.
The official was formulated by the experts and methods of effective public policy. It is the work with real trends, the closeness of authorities to the citizens, trust between candidates and voters, not the technology to manipulate votes, “the court as a unit of political space (where you need to start increasing the level and quality of life), the ability to communicate with different groups of voters (Volodin called such politicians “political polyglots), representative, expert control and the function of the Deputy. Separately Volodin said that the candidates in the last weeks before the election will have to ask voters for support. “It is necessary that the rhetoric has been through the appeals and requests: please I ask you to come, support. This will oblige the candidate,” he said.