The Ministry of economic development worsened the forecast of falling of real incomes of Russians


Real disposable incomes of Russians for the year will fall to 4.7—4.9 per cent, expecting economic development. About it as transfers “Interfax”, at a banking forum in Sochi, said the Director of the consolidated Department of macroeconomic forecasting of Ministry of economic development Kirill Tremasov.

This means that a forecast of per capita income deteriorated. In the forecast published in may, the Ministry assumed in the baseline scenario, from the fact that real disposable income at the end of 2016 will fall to 2.8 per cent. The conservative scenario assumed a drop in revenue of 5%, that is, the new prediction is closer to the former pessimistic.

At the same time, the Ministry expects growth in real wages at year-end — it needs to be 0.5—0.7 percent, also said Tremasov on Thursday. In the previous baseline forecast (officially still current) said the fall in real wages of 1.5%.

It used to be, real wages have always been associated with indicators of consumer demand — in particular, with the retail trade, this correlation is not, said the official. Wages are rising, but consumption falls due to the increase in the propensity of Russians to save their funds. “This was in 2009-2010, then, these figures also disagreed, but maybe not as dramatically”, — said the official.

However, according to Ministry forecasts, in 2016 this gap in the dynamics of wages and consumption began to decline. According to the Ministry of economic development, consumer demand will soon show a positive trend after real wages. However, retail trade turnover, said the Tremasov, at the end of the year is still reduced by 4.2 and 4.4%. Previously, the Agency expected that the decline will amount to 2.7%.

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