The premiere of exit: why was replaced by the leaders of Armenia and Kazakhstan

September 8 updated guidance from the three former Soviet republics. For several hours, voluntarily resigned the government of Armenia, was dismissed by the government of Kazakhstan, and in Uzbekistan, the Parliament appointed a new acting President.

Carte Blanche for reform

The office of the Prime Minister of Armenia Hovik Abrahamyan resigned after two and a half years. “I decided to resign and to give the President the opportunity to form a new government. You need to think about the success of all of us and give a chance to the new government on the basis of the work, and with new approaches to consolidate the society”, — the politician said Thursday morning.

The decision Abrahamyan on his resignation, in fact, is a response to the recent call of President Serzh Sargsyan to form a “national consensus government”.

During the period of study Abrahamian (beginning in April 2014, the country has gone through some serious political upheaval. In the autumn of 2014 the national currency started to fall following the ruble, followed by accelerated inflation. After a few months, the riots resulted in the brutal murder of an entire family by a soldier of the Russian military base.

Released from the post of Prime Minister of Armenia Hovik Abrahamyan

Photo: Xinhua/Li Yibo/Global Look Press via ZUMA Press

By the summer of 2015 the economic crisis has forced the government to raise tariffs on electricity, which again led to massive protests. The following spring, in the period of cooling of relations between Russia and Turkey, which maintained the balance of power in the Caucasus, was the strongest in many years, the outbreak of the Karabakh conflict. Finally, in July 2016, the armed opposition captured and for two weeks held the office of patrol in the city of Erebuni.

The new Prime Minister is likely to be the former mayor of Yerevan Karen Karapetyan is a native of Nagorno-Karabakh and full namesake of another Armenian politician, the elder brother of the Russian businessman Samvel Karapetyan. About his candidacy, Reuters reported, citing local media and experts. Karapetyan has a reputation as a technocrat: first and foremost he is a businessman and Manager than a politician. In 2000-e years he headed the Armenian branch of “Gazprom”, then in 2011 briefly worked for the mayor of Yerevan, after which he returned to a familiar structure: in 2011-2012 was the first Vice-President of “Gazprombank”, and then worked at top management positions in different structures of “Gazprom”.

The close relationship of the new Prime Minister to Moscow is a small fact from the biography of him, which only partly will determine the foreign policy of Armenia, said Deputy Director of Caucasus Institute Sergey Minasyan. The main objective of the Yerevan now carrying out radical economic reforms, and the candidate Karapetyan was chosen for this reason. The other important factor is that, in April 2017 will be held in Armenia parliamentary elections. Abrahamian after retirement can head the campaign headquarters of the ruling Republican party of President Serzh Sargsyan, told Arminfo’s sources.

“The main cause of years of protests — the difficult socio-economic situation in the country, monopolization of business, bad personnel decisions,” said Minasyan. — Karapetyan formally out of the system, bright representative of which was Abrahamyan, and it is easier to rebuild it from the outside”. According to the expert, before him stand two main challenges. First, it is getting carte Blanche from the President to reform; secondly, non-resistance to the new course (under pressure from the President) for the Republican party, which in theory could itself become a victim of these reforms.

The new leader

The two chambers of Parliament Uzbekistana September 8, voted for the appointment of interim President of the Republic Prime Minister Shavkat mirzijaeva. He has 13 years headed the government of the country and is considered the most likely successor to Islam Karimov. It mirzijaev headed the Commission on organization of the funeral of the leader of the Republic. But the position of acting President, according to the Uzbek Constitution, were transferred to the speaker of the Senate Nigmatulla Yuldasheva, who recused himself on Thursday. New election of the President by law must be held within three months.

Honorable discharge

This morning the President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev by his decree dismissed the government headed by Karim Massimov, who headed the Cabinet of Ministers from April 2014. The acting head of government was appointed first Deputy Prime Minister Bakytzhan Sagintayev, the Minister of Kazakhstan Karim Massimov was appointed head of the national security Committee (KNB, founded in 1992 on the basis of the Republican KGB).

“I thank the President for the high confidence placed in me,” reads the entry Massimov in his Twitter account the day of his resignation. As noted by the Kazakh news Agency NUR, the former Prime Minister was one of the most consistent in the nation conductors of modern technology, worked to create “electronic government”.

At the same time, last year Kazakhstan also repeatedly faced with the challenges of social stability. In August 2015, under pressure from falling oil prices, the authorities switched to a floating exchange rate of tenge, and in a few hours the currency has fallen by a quarter. Since the beginning of this summer the country has a second-to-last level of terrorist threat. It was introduced after the attack of militant groups on a military unit in Aktobe. A month later, the KNB announced that the detainees informed the head of one of the largest brewing companies of Kazakhstan Tokhtar Tuleshov funded last spring, anti-government rallies with the aim of a coup and seize power. The trial in the case of Tuleshov starts next week, he was indicted on 16 articles of the criminal code. Then, in mid-July, in the former capital Almaty, the unknown opened fire near the building of the local police station, killed three people, two of them were police officers. Finally, this week the CBN announced the prevention of a large-scale attack similar to the September 11 tragedy in the United States.

The reshuffle of the government of Kazakhstan is not a secret combination for the preparation Masimov as successor to Nazarbayev: rather, it is the President’s reaction to the growth of socio-economic problems and the threat of terrorism, says the analyst of the Center for the study of neighboring countries RISS Ivan Ippolitov. The previous head of the KNB has been in his post less than a year, and not the fact that Massimov will stay there for a long time. The Prime Minister’s resignation has long been discussed, now it is timed to the beginning of a political season in which the elite should have the updated, said Ippolitov. Friday will be the extended session of the government, resignations will not be the Ministers retain their portfolios in the new Cabinet.

Changes in the government often used Nazarbayev in times of crisis, like an expert of the Institute of Oriental studies of the RAS, Stanislav Pritchin. This time, however, the President chose non-trivial move”: if earlier Massimov alternately headed the government, the presidential Administration, now he is sent to work in the security services. This course Pritchin calls “honorary retirement” for society. In addition, certain Ippolitov from RISS, the second Cabinet Massimov was more proactive and efficient than his first government, which affected its fortunes.

Deputy Prime Minister Sagintayev is absolutely loyal to Nazarbayev person and to adhere to presidential policy, said Ippolitov. Whether Sagintayev to discard the prefix “acting” and stay in office, is, according to experts, an open question. In any case, Kazakhstan, and Armenia, is now a lot of domestic socio-political challenges, which determined the change of government.