The gain before the election
The liberal democratic party in the polls was fixed at the second position by increasing the separation from going the third of the Communist party, reported by VTSIOM on Monday. This is the last day of the sociological service can publish polls before the election of the state Duma.
According to the poll conducted on September 10-11 (combined data housing and CATI surveys, sample size 3,200), the rating of the liberal democratic party is 12.6% (of all respondents). At the beginning of September for the liberal democratic party were ready to vote for 2% less of the respondents. This is the highest figure of the party since the beginning of the campaign in June, she gained 10.3 per cent.
The Communist party is in third place with a score of 7.4%, although 3 and 4 September for the Communists were ready to vote for 8.7% of Russians. On the eve of the election, VTSIOM published the lowest result of the Communists since the beginning of the campaign.
“The important trend of recent weeks is strengthening the liberal democratic party, which claims to be more confident on the second place”, — says the press-release VTSIOM Director General Valery Fedorov. According to him, the campaign of the Communist party does not increase the rating of the party, however, the basic electorate of the Communist party mobilized enough.
United Russia strengthened its position at the finish line and “confidently leads in the presidential race” (41.1 per cent), says a press release. In the previous poll, United Russia received 2% less — a total of 39.3%.
The rating of the ruling party decreased in the three months from 45% to 41% of the votes, reminds Fedorov. “In the last days, the decreasing trend stopped and the rating increased again, probably due to the effective accent to your party with the President”, — believes the head of VTSIOM.
A chance to save the faction in the newly elected Duma is also “Fair Russia”, sociologists. According to the polls, support for the party during the week increased from 5.3 to 6.3 percent. Overall rating of the fragile socialist-revolutionaries, said Fyodorov.
Fund “Public opinion” also gives the second place of LDPR: according to him, on September 4, for the liberal democratic party are ready to vote 11% of respondents, while for the Communist party – on 9 per cent.
According to a recent survey Levada-center conducted in late August, the second place was held by the Communist party with 15%, overtaking the liberal democratic party on 1%. Since June, the liberal democratic party was not overtaken by the Communists, recorded by the Levada center.
The interlocutors in the Kremlin in recent months talked about the trend of increase in the rating of the liberal democratic party. However, they assumed that on election day the old electorate of the Communist party will show more discipline and mobilization, than the young electorate of the liberal democratic party, and in the end the Communists will still take second place.
Last Thursday that the liberal democratic party becomes “the party of the second choice,” and under certain conditions can overtake the Communist party, said the first Deputy head of the presidential administration Vyacheslav Volodin at a meeting with leading scientists. He connected this with the fact that the party leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky has changed the approach to the management of the campaign. “Went outrageous, conflicts with the agenda of the state,” said the Kremlin official.
Participating in the event, the experts agreed with the Kremlin official, but the cited and their arguments. The President of the Center for political technologies Igor Bunin has explained the trend the fact that some liberal-minded voters don’t want to go against the government and public opinion and therefore choose the liberal democratic party as an alternative to the European oriented parties. Yevgeny Minchenko, the head of “Minchenko consulting”, spoke about the strengthening of nationalism throughout the world, and hence the increase in rating of the liberal democratic party, he insisted.
It is likely the loss of positions by the Communists, who had long been enemies due to the “opposition version of patriotism,” said Alexei Zudin, a member of the expert Council of the Fund ISAPI. After the annexation of Crimea version of patriotism from the Communists devalued, said the expert. The Patriotic agenda, which was previously monopolized by the Communist party, now moved to the “United Russia”, LDPR and other parties, agreed Volodin.
Russian sociology has a psychological pressure on voters, said political analyst Alexander Kynev. “The government would like to LDPR has taken the second place, because this party easier and more comfortable for the authorities,” says Kanev. According to him, the campaign grew the undecided voters. “The amount of undecided votes is falling, and all, including the liberal democratic party. And undecided, the election may throw anywhere. And sociologists share of the undecided are distributed evenly between the parties,” — said the expert.