Three days without war: how the parties to the conflict Syria use the silence mode


Two more days

In the night from 14 to 15 September, the Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of state John Kerry agreed on the extension of the truce in Syria for another 48 hours. This was announced by state Department spokesman mark Toner. He noted that the situation in Syria is “not perfect.” “We see violence from both sides and continue to monitor the situation,” Toner said to journalists.

The Russian side on Thursday confirmed the extension of the truce, having reproached the moderate opposition in the failure of the agreements. “At the end of the third day of implementing only the Syrian army to maintain the silence regime, while the United States led by “moderate opposition” increases number of attacks on residential areas,” — said the official representative of the RF Ministry of defense General Igor Konashenkov told reporters.

Earlier, the head of the Russian center for reconciliation Sergei Kurylenko held talks with the head of the analytical political-military group of the USA in Amman on the necessity of extending the truce, the message of the Russian center for reconciliation of the warring parties.

According to the reached between Russia and the United States agreements at the expiration of two hours from the start of the truce, it should be extended for another two days, after which it will become perpetual. As part of the agreement, the United States must ensure the physical separation of the moderate opposition and terrorist groups.

The silence mode

As a result of agreements between Lavrov and Kerry starting from 12 September in the five-year war throughout the Syria has paused.

The Syrian Observatory for human rights said that on Monday there was not one death among those involved in ceasefire groups.

Edition, SANA also confirmed the absence of the victims during this period, however, emphasizes that some groups are mortar fire, despite the agreements reached.

Fighting continued in the province of Hama. Opposition supporters post on your social networks the videos, which the government army strikes on human settlements at the North of the province. Minor clashes occur in several tens kilometers to the East of Damascus.

Russian centre for the reconciliation of the warring parties two days of ceasefire recorded 57 violations from the opposition and none from government troops. According to the center, the number of settlements that joined the reconciliation process, increased to 616.

The truce does not concern the terrorist groups banned in Russia, ISIS and jabhat al Fattah al-sham” (bisaya “dzhebhat an-Nusra”). The day before, on 14 August, the Russian air force stopped the attack of the militants near the town of Palmyra, under the control of government forces. This was reported the Deputy head of the Main operations Directorate of the General staff of armed forces of Russia the General-Lieutenant Victor Pozniki. He noted that in the bombing of a Russian group HQs destroyed 250 terrorists and 15 pickup trucks with heavy machine guns and anti-aircraft guns.

Who benefits from the truce

Prolonged truce profitable in the first place of the Syrian army, according to the orientalist Grigory Melamed. In his view, Assad’s army and the friendly group acted in the last few months successfully, however at the strategic level have stalled and don’t know what to do next.

“The opposition groups will also try to use the truce to strengthen its positions”, — the orientalist. About the aspirations of the strongest Syrian opposition groups to unite in an interview with Arab newspaper Asharq al-Awast said one of the founders of the group “Ahrar al-sham” Eyad al-Shaar. According to him, the individual units of the “Free Syrian army”, “Ahrar al-sham and jabhat al Fattah al-sham will join forces in the provinces of Aleppo and Idlib this year. Melamed argues that Union opposition will not be durable, but can become a problem for the regime.

In addition, said Melamed, a truce is beneficial for the “Islamic state” (banned in Russia). “Talking about the IG has faded into the background. Attack on Raqqa and Mosul are postponed, since everyone is busy with the observance of the truce”, — the expert believes.

“Assad has actively come to a truce and to his advantage to stop now,” — said the Director of the center for analysis of middle East conflicts of the Institute of USA and Canada Alexander Shumilin. According to him, with the support of the Lebanese Hezbollah, Iranian revolutionary guards and the Russian VKS weak the Syrian army can continue to advance in key city of Aleppo. Therefore, he said, Syrian President torpedoing yet another truce. “There is no truce, which would Assad not disrupted after Russia went to Syria. And this truce will not be an exception” — sums up Shumilin.

Tasks

The declared goal of the truce is to coordinate the activities of the coalition and Russia against the Islamic state and “Dzhebhat EN-Nusra.” In addition, during the talks, Kerry and Lavrov indicated that the truce will allow to solve the humanitarian crisis in the country.

Russia and the United States there are three tasks that they solve in the framework of the armistice: the improvement of the humanitarian situation, preparation of the negotiation process between Assad and the opposition and coordinated the fight against terrorists, lists, program Director of the Valdai club and head of the Agency “Foreign policy” by Andrey sushentsov.

The desire of Russia and the United States to solve the Syrian issue is also dictated by security issues, he said. “Both Russia and the United States want peace, the difference in approaches,” the expert explains. According to him, the continuation of the peace process became possible in connection with a reduction in expectations for the United States in opposition. “Americans are increasingly aware that a motley opposition is unable to govern the country,” explains Sushentsov. That is why the US go towards Russia, which supports the incumbent President. In addition, the expert said, the terrorist threat in the uncontrolled regime of territories directly concerns US ally — Turkey. “The United States cannot simply step aside in this case,” says Sushentsov. For Russia, the threat is more real and for domestic security, the expert emphasizes.

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