SUPERVOLCANO: how United Russia will dispose of a record number of seats

The CEC on Monday reported on the counting 99% of ballots on elections of the state Duma of the seventh convocation. “United Russia” leads from 54.17% of the votes, the Communist party gains of 13.37%, LDPR — 13,18%, “Fair Russia” — 6,21%.


“United Russia” received not the highest result in its history, but will form to its largest faction. According to preliminary calculations of the CEC, the party will get the mandate 343 (76% of the total number of deputies): 140 will be held in the lower house on the list and 203 as the winners in single-member districts. Many of the mandates of United Russia was not for all history of their participation in state Duma elections: the previous record of the party in power was in 2007 when she won 315 seats in the lower house of Parliament (70%). Constitutional majority will allow United Russia to adopt constitutional laws and amend the Constitution only with their votes in the state Duma. In absolute terms, the number of voters “an United Russia” has decreased. Five years ago, for the “United Russia” voted 32.4 million people, this time of 27.2 million voters (as of Monday).

Other parties will be represented much more modest. The Communist party would get 42 seats (35 in the list, and seven in the districts), it is now the faction has 92 deputies. LDPR is a 39 parliamentary seats, five of which will depart odnomandatniki, in the last Duma, the party was represented by 56 parliamentarians. At “Fair Russia” will have 23 seats (including seven single-seat districts) instead of the current 64.

The LDPR’s electorate in the five years decreased from 7.7 million to 6.7 million voters. For the Communist party yesterday voted 6.8 million Russians, whereas five years ago — 12.6 million electoral Support of three parties fell by more than two times. So, “Fair Russia” instead of the 8.7 million votes received now only 3.1 million of the “Yabloko” Party, this time supported 987 thousand Russians, whereas five years ago it was voted almost 2.3 million people.

The issue of leadership

CEC plans to bring the results of the elections on 23 September, said the Chairman of the Commission, Ella Pamfilova. After that within few days applicants must determine whether they go to the Duma. State Duma speaker Sergei Naryshkin said on Monday morning that he was going to stay in the Duma. Answering the journalists ‘ question about whether he plans to abandon the mandate, he replied: “No, it’s not going to pass the mandate, of course.” The question of whether he will be speaker of the new convocation of the lower house will be decided at the first plenary session, he said.

Care Naryshkin, the lower house of Parliament has been discussed for several months. That after the election the speaker may leave the Council and to head the foreign intelligence Service, wrote the newspaper “Kommersant”. Now this scheme is not discussed and has lost relevance, says the source close to the Kremlin. If Itachi leaves, then to another position, he said.

The position of the speaker may take the Deputy head of the presidential administration Vyacheslav Volodin (led by one of the regional lists of United Russia), wrote “Kommersant” and “Vedomosti”. Volodin, about his plans for the mandate until Monday evening announced.

Without opposition

In the new Duma there will be two representative parties, which did not exist before in the Parliament — “the Motherland” and “Civic platform”, their representatives win in single-member districts. Both parties position themselves as consonant with the presidential course. The leader of “Rodina” Alexey Zhuravlev was already in the faction of United Russia of the sixth convocation. The leader of the “Civic platform” Rifat Shaikhutdinov until 2011, was a Deputy from the liberal democratic party, and then joined the project “just cause” Mikhail Prokhorov. In March last year, he invited the party to dissociate themselves from the liberals and make clear its support for the accession of Crimea to Russia, because of disagreement with the Crimean question the party then left Irina Prokhorova.

Receives the mandate of one candidate, put his candidacy as an independent candidate is the current MP from the faction “United Russia” Vladislav Reznik. The interlocutors in the Duma earlier it was explained that United Russia is not needed as the official candidate of the party because of the scandal with the Spanish court, accusing Resnick of links with the Tambov criminal group. In March, the Spanish Prosecutor’s office declared him wanted. Later, the court reversed the decision on the arrest warrant.

Most of the winners in single-mandate constituencies are not from the “United Russia” went to the polls in areas where the ruling party did not put up their competitors. The only exception were three candidates from the Communist party: Communist Sergey Kazankov defeated United Russia in the Republic of Mari El, Michael Schapov in Irkutsk region, Alexey Chicken — in the Ulyanovsk region.

The main problem of the new convocation — the status of single-seat districts, says associate Professor of the Institute of social Sciences of Ranepa Catherine Shulman. Megabreccia EP will require a different structuring of intra-faction than in the previous convocation in single-unavoidably wants to join “interest” and representation in the leadership of the committees, she explains.

In the last convocation, in which there were deputies-odnomandatniki (2003-2007), the regulations allowed the formation of parliamentary groups, which could include not only single-but also spisochnik. There was also the status of “independent member” who is unwilling to belong to any Association. With the change of the electoral system in the regulation were only fractions formed by party lists. The faction not to join, and there’s no out — can only be excluded, describes the problem of Shulman.

Bright opposition in the new Duma will not even be in the single digits. Dmitry Gudkov, expelled from a just Russia” in 2013, this time was elected from the “Apple”, but he lost in the single-mandate district in Moscow the former head of the United Russia Rospotrebnadzor Gennady Onishchenko. Released from the party last spring Dmitriev (Deputy of all convocations) was a candidate from the Party of growth in single-mandate district in St. Petersburg and also lost.

Lost and nominated from Yabloko and PARNAS opposition Andrei Zubov, Maria Baronova United Russia Nikolai Gonchar in CAO, the leader of the Pskov Yabloko Lev Shlosberg was not included even in the top three in the district, lost the nominees of the “Open Russia” Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

PARNAS and Yabloko party lists could not overcome the five percent barrier. “Apple” for the first time will not receive government funding, which was obtained over 3% of votes the party received of 1.99% PARNAS received 0,73% of the vote. The growth of party Boris Titov has received a 1.28%.

Reduced legitimacy

The Duma elections was a record of interest to the electors, and the deputies were elected with very low voter turnout. As of 18:00 on the voting day, the CEC told about 39.37 percent of voters. However, after a night of counting ballots, the turnout increased by a quarter. At 14:05 on Monday, the CEC reported about 47,78% of voters. But even these 10% have not brought the Duma to the result of 2011, when the elections come 60% of the electorate, and by 2003, when the new Duma voted 55% of voters.

The lowest activity in the Duma elections showed residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg, where the polling stations came 25-28% of voters. Less than 30% also went to the polls in Irkutsk, Tomsk, Novosibirsk region, Perm Krai.

“The turnout as the turnout,” said at a press conference on Monday morning, the head of Central electoral Commission, Ella Pamfilova. President Vladimir Putin at the headquarters of “United Russia” on Sunday evening, acknowledged that voter turnout is “not the biggest”, but still called it high. Press Secretary of the President Dmitry Peskov has noticed that “would be welcomed the higher turnout, while refusing to consider the resulting low turnout. “The vast majority of European countries the turnout is much lower,” — he stressed. The turnout was lower in cities than the national average, but on the credibility of elections is not affected, said Sands. The Commissioner for human rights Tatyana Moskalkova, speaking at a meeting of the CEC after the announcement of the first of these elections, explained the low turnout in some regions, the fact that voters could not find their polling stations.

Elections to the state Duma. Preliminary results

The latest data in real time

It is possible that a few percent of the increase is the result of additions in the regions, a political analyst Abbas Gallyamov. “The Kremlin could demand anything from the governors, but the real levers of restraint electoral abuses had not. Therefore, where the question for governors was an edge, they do have falsified the result, including with inflated appearance”, — the expert believes.

“United Russia” received a record number of mandates for a constitutional majority, but just to spend to the state Duma as many of my people, says political analyst Alexei Makarkin. The power doesn’t need to be carried out in the Parliament, more opposition to her was quite satisfied with the last three of the party. “The Russian government is absolutely not going to engage in dialogue with the West on the subject of democracy, he is now suspended, so having two or three opposition MPs or a small liberal faction of them totally useless. There were no demonstrations against the election results there, and the supporters of the government would be disappointed if the opposition are gone,” he said.

Elections implemented purely technical problem: to keep four of the party, which was in the Duma, said on the air-TV the head of programs at the Carnegie Center Andrei Kolesnikov. According to him, this model will last until 2021, but has run its course. The reason is that the existing Parliament of the party leadership, not ideological: Zyuganov — 72, Zhirinovsky — 70, “Fair Russia” aging leaders, and even the formal leader of “United Russia” that it will ever go away. “The system is not durable, it medium, it serves the purpose of retaining legitimacy in the first years of the next presidency of Putin”, — says Andrey Kolesnikov.


In addition to the election of the state Duma on 18 September, Russia held its election of nine heads of regions and 39 regional parliaments.

In the gubernatorial elections in all nine regions was confidently won by the candidates from the government, before the second round is not reached none of the competitors acting.

The lowest result was shown by the acting head of the TRANS-Baikal Natalia Zhdanova (54,32%) and perennial Governor of the Ulyanovsk region Sergey Morozov (headed by the region since 2006), which was re-elected with a score of 54.3%.

The most successful by the number of votes of the heads of regions became the head of Chechnya Ramzan Kadyrov, the three competitors with 98,11%. His closest rival, Idris Usmanov gained 0.8%, Giralt Batayev received 0,56% of the votes, the Sultan of Demilhanov of 0.47%.

In the Tula region triumphantly elected Governor appointed in December of acting and former security guard of the President Alexey Dyumin. Putin visited Tula oblast in early September. Not previously lived in Tula Dyumin scored 84% of the vote.

The head of the Komi Republic on the early elections is Sergei Gaplikov, who a year ago was appointed acting Republic after the arrest and dismissal of Vyacheslav Gayzer (suspected of organizing a criminal community). Gaplikov bypassed four other competitors with a score of 62%. The Governor of the Tver region, the former Deputy Minister of agriculture Igor Rudenya defeated two opponents with a score of 72%. Was re-elected in Tuva Sholban Kara-ool, the head of the Republic since 2007. He won an absolute victory, gaining 85,66%.

In two regions, Karachay-Cherkess Republic and the Republic of North Ossetia — Alania — leaders chosen by the local parliaments from candidates submitted by the President. In Karachay-Cherkessia people’s Assembly unanimously chose Rashid Temrezov, who has headed the region since 2011. The Parliament of North Ossetia voted for Vyacheslav Bitarova, who was appointed interim in February after the death of the then head of the region of Tamerlane Aguzarova.

Less than 40% of the “United Russia” won in the quarter regions. The least the party won power in Karelia, only 33.2%. United Russia did not receive the 40% in the Altai, Krasnoyarsk, Primorsky territories, Amur, Vologda, Kirov, Murmansk, Novgorod and Omsk regions. In the third region, the “United Russia” won about 40 to 50% of the Sverdlovsk oblast (40,29%), Kaliningrad oblast (41,2%), Perm Krai (44.10%).

The widest representation of the “United Russia” has received in Parliament of the Chechen Republic, gaining 91,08% of the vote. Only the ruling party gained more than 70% of votes in four regions: Republic of Ingushetia (77%), Dagestan (76%) and Mordovia (88,77%).