Was there a crisis?
published the second annual rating of the largest Russian companies — 500. Paradoxically, when the economy slid into the deepest recession for 6 years, and the population was losing revenue, the largest firms increased profits and revenues. The total revenue of the 500 companies in the ranking has grown in 2015 by 13.6% and amounted to 63.6 per trillion and a profit and does increased twice — to 4.05 trillion.
For comparison, Russia’s GDP last year fell by 3.7% (which was the first economic contraction since 2009), real incomes fell by 4.3% (Rosstat data), and consumption of Russian households, according to the world Bank, fell by 9.6%.
Total revenues of the member companies have a rating equal to 79% of Russia’s GDP for 2015 (GDP in current prices amounted to 80.8 trillion), and the profit is equivalent to almost half of net profit “all Russian companies, judging by the increased net financial result of organizations, according to Rosstat (8,4 trillion rubles). In other words, the rating can serve as a good approximation for the entire Russian business. Why performance of companies was growing as if the recession never happened?
That citizen is bad, then business is good
Many companies have shown revenue growth at the expense of maximum seven years of inflation and devaluation of the ruble, due to which the exporters increased sales by 30-50%. Large companies occupy the most significant niche in the export of “small” are not allowed there,” says head of business surveys Department, center for Real sector Gaidar Institute Sergey Tsukhlo.
Businesses have learned to survive and work in difficult conditions, says a senior economist at Sberbank CIB Anton Struchenevsky. This paradoxical at first glance, the increase in the profits of big business in the fall of the economy — will remain in force in the future, believes Tsukhlo.
This is not the best way affects the income of the population, because the wages in Russia is rather flexible. But the company has retained employment — “this is the way their survival”, Struchenevsky says.
Although the year 2015 has been declared a crisis for the Russian economy, in industry most of the figures bore little resemblance to the crisis dynamics of the sample in the 1990s and 2008-2009, noted Gaidar Institute in a large-scale survey of the Russian economy in 2015. And the situation has not deteriorated, but only improved. This month Sergey Tsukhlo recorded that the index of adaptation of the industry (the share of enterprises evaluating their performance as normal) in the third quarter of 2016 increased to a maximum of 23 years of observations. “The industry simply adapted to stagnation, since there is no crisis of the fall of 2008-2009 did not happen, despite all the panic, which raised the officials and analysts,” said the expert.
Oil and gas almost passed
Nevertheless, the number of companies whose profits are rising, dropped in the ranking compared to the 2014 year from 397 to 375 and the number of enterprises with falling sales, by contrast, has increased from 93 to 113. Changed the contribution of the oil and gas sector in the overall revenues of the 500 largest companies: it decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 34%, although, of course, remained in first place among all industries. Decreased and the number of commodity companies included in the rankings, from 61 to 53.
This, of course, does not mean that oil companies have reduced their performance in absolute terms. Profit oil and gas sector 500 increased by 46%, from 1.98 trillion to 2,895 trillion, but profits in other industries grew even faster.
One of the leaders in the quantitative presence in the rankings, surpassing oil and gas companies, came to the company from the service sector, especially financial (but remember that the rating included 13 non-state pension funds for the first time reporting under IFRS). In third place — trading business, slightly yielding commodities. As a senior analyst at UBS Maxim Moshkov, the position of oil and gas companies in 2015 have remained stable: growing production figures and the oil price though have dropped (the average price of Urals in 2015 fell by almost half, to $51,2 per barrel), but these losses largely offset the ruble. Finance and retail just grew faster, to the same effect on their condition and the lack of “dollar content” in the balance sheets on the liability side, he suggests.
The fact that a good adaptability to the existing conditions showed the company that are not related to the export of minerals, adds optimism in assessing the potential of the Russian economy, said Struchenevsky from Sberbank CIB.
Growth by leaps and bounds
The company with the highest revenue growth this year — “Gazstroyproekt” (№458, +784%). Is a construction contractor with an office in St. Petersburg, working at the facilities of “Gazprom”. The slogan “Gazstroyproekt”: “Eyes are afraid, and hands do!” Also has greatly increased the revenue from the exporter zernotorgovaj house “RIF” (No. 199, and +209%) and gas company “sever energy shares” (№83, +292%) — joint venture “Gazprom” and NOVATEK. “Reef” has increased the volume of grain sold., and “sever energy shares” — the production of gas.
Among growing — just a few companies with the alcohol market: is a distributor of cheap vodka “Status-Groups” (№236, +206%), network alkomarketov “Bristol” (No. 386, +199%) and “Red and White” (№128, +74%).
Thanks to the import substitution
Large companies experience hard times easier than small, said Struchenevsky. “If the loans to large businesses grow, the small share in total loan portfolio has decreased quite significantly over the past year and a half,” he recalls. In addition, there are differences in the investment activity, where the major decline also occurred in small business. In large enterprises, according to the estimates of Sergei Tsukhlo of the Gaidar Institute, the situation is better with the investment plans, staffing, stocks of raw materials and finished products, Finance. On the market, according to Tsukhlo, besides there is trimming small business, which has no “safety cushion”, the administrative resource and access to state orders.
Place left the rating commodity companies among others took companies from sector “agriculture and food”. They can be considered beneficiaries of the devaluation of the ruble, import substitution and counter-sanctions, according to Director of the Center for agrofood policy, Institute of applied economic research, Ranepa Natalya shagaida. Companies in this industry have increased representation in the ranking with 28 to 36, and its total revenue by 40%.
But the question of the amount of the winning in these sectors require careful study, emphasizes shagaida: their result can be explained by the rather higher prices rather than increasing production volumes. Inflation in Russia last year reached 12.9 per cent — the highest since 2008. But in comparable prices throughout 2015 there was a decline in purchases by the end of the year the demand reduction was 9%, the expert reminds.
The middle class tightened their belts
A drop in the rating showed a car, real estate development and construction, as well as travel companies. The middle class is a potential user of their products — in the crisis changed their behavior: the income of its members fell not so much as the poor Russians, but for the individuals planning horizon further indicates the head of the Center for social policy Institute of Economics Eugene Gontmakher. The middle class in anticipation of a long recession, in particular, began increasingly to form savings and avoiding excessive consumption.
12 companies family Gutseriev
In the ranking of the 500 — 395 private companies, 89 state companies, 15 joint ventures and one subsidiary of foreign Corporation (“VimpelCom”, which is the exception). The number of companies 500 private shareholders among the leading family of Michael Gutseriev — they are controlled by 12 companies with a total revenue of 652 billion RUB For 6 companies from using Vladimir Yevtushenkov AFK “System” (the total revenue — 638 bn), Iskander Makhmudov, Andrei Bokarev and their partners (597 billion rubles) and Arkady Rotenberg and his family members (463 billion).
In the consolidated revenue of the 500 enterprises decreased slightly, the share of state — owned companies from 43.7 to 43.3%. But to judge the real share of government in the economy only on formal grounds is not necessary, the Director of the Institute of strategic analysis FBK Igor Nikolaev. He notes that although formally the company in Russia can be private, in fact they are only “quasicycle” because private business is “constructed” — is heavily dependent on the state, and sometimes he actually obeys.
The Bank of the ROC and the company FSO
Of the 84 beginners 500 this year, 11 trading companies, including two of the largest online auto parts store Exist (No. 444) and Emex (No. 484).
More than trade, the number of newcomers 500 set only financial — 21 the company, including the payment service QIWI (No. 466) and the Bank “Peresvet”. Slightly less than 50% of shares of “overexposure” belongs to a religious organization, “Financial and economic management of the Russian Orthodox Church (Moscow Patriarchate), which is the Executive body of the Russian Orthodox Church. Total revenues (equivalent to revenue) of the Bank “Peresvet” during the year grew by 75% to RUB 21 billion That helped the Bank immediately to take the 418-th place in the ranking of 500.
Another newcomer on the list of 500 — FGUP “Ateks” (No. 403), this company controlled by the Federal security service of Russia. On the website of FSUE States that “Ateks” is engaged in “construction of objects of Federal significance”. According to “SPARK-Interfax”, in 2015, the company won tenders for the reconstruction of hydroelectric Beloomut in the Moscow region (the contract amount of 5.5 billion rubles) and the reconstruction of the spire and decorative architectural elements of the facades of high-rise office building of the MFA of Russia (over 1 bln). In the end the revenue of Ataxia in 2015 rose more than doubled, to 21.7 billion rubles.