In the base forecast of development of Russian economy for the next three years the Ministry of economic development worsened the most compared to the same forecast developed in April, “Vedomosti”.
According to the new forecast, inflation even in 2019 will not fall to the target level of 4% and will reach 4.1%. Forecast of GDP in 2019 instead of 101.4 trillion is projected at the level of 98.3 trillion rubles, the dollar rate instead of the previously provided 62,7 64,4 RUB amount to RUB.
At the same time in the new baseline forecast a reduced inflation rate for the year 2016 (from 6.5 to 5.8%) and growth in real disposable income in 2019, the new version will be instead of 1.3% instead of 1.1%.
As writes the edition “the Newspaper.<url>”, which also reviewed the document, the forecast is developed in three versions: “basic”, “basic+” and “purpose”. The basic variant of the forecast, the Ministry believes are conservative and do not involve a fundamental change in economic growth model, it is based on the price of oil at $40 a barrel. The option “basic+” differs from “baseline” that assumes a higher oil price is $50 in 2017 and $55 in 2018-2019 and a lower dollar exchange rate — 58.7 per–61,7 RUB.
The third option is “target” — the price of oil is set the same as in the “basic+”, but expected the transition to the investment model of development, the newspaper notes. The government carries out reforms, constrains the rates and wage growth, redistributes budget expenditures. Because of lower rates, the Central Bank is increasing lending to the private sector increases investment and non-oil exports.