Oscillating States: what to expect from the debate, Clinton and trump


Show for millions

For a half hour on Monday (Tuesday Moscow time) at new York’s Hofstra University for the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and her opponent from the Republican party, Donald Trump will be invited to comment on three topics: “the development direction of America”, “how to achieve prosperity”, “safety of America”.

In the presidents running also the libertarian Gary Johnson and Jill Stein from the green. However, they cannot participate in the debate — to the need for public opinion polls to have the support of at least 15% of the electorate in five States.

The first debate may set a record for number of viewers — more than 100 million, predict the American media.

Clinton, according to the newspaper The Guardian, was preparing to debate a few days at his home in the company of advisers, trump is an experienced presenter of the TV show — campaigning in Pennsylvania and other States.

The debate is extremely important for you to first meet one-on-one, before they waged a parallel campaign, competing in absentia, often they told other people, and the media often interpreted incorrectly said — face-to-face meeting will eliminate all the excess, explains the importance of meeting Larry Sisler, communications expert from Philadelphia.

Despite the fact that the debate will be watched by millions, Clinton and trump, in making their announcements, will focus mainly on the population of the so-called swing States where the outcome of the presidential race is still not a foregone conclusion, he predicts.

Where determined by the President of the United States

The US presidential election is indirect: November 8, citizens will vote for candidates and electors, who in a 41 day vote for President based on who voted the population of the state.

The number of electors from state to state varies and depends on the number of state representatives in Congress.

To win, a candidate must gain 270 of the 538 electoral votes. In most of the 50 States on the basis of surveys already know who will win. According to these calculations, Clinton has the support of 200 electors, trump — 164, 174 remain Unallocated electoral votes. They are concentrated in swing States.

It is in these States now focused campaign candidates, says Malcolm Kenyatta, a supporter of Clinton in Philadelphia, a local political activist. He drew attention to the fact that in those States where the outcome of the race is a foregone conclusion, there is practically no agitation: what is the meaning of Hillary Clinton to spend money on a campaign in California, which will vote for it, if you can spend them in Pennsylvania, where the situation is unstable, he explains. That is why great attention is paid to the surveys on the ground, not in the whole country.

According to the median estimate of The New York Times, across the country, Clinton supported by 44% of voters, trump’s 41%.

A Republican ahead of the Democrat in only one poll: Rasmussen services counted his 44% support vs 39% for Clinton.

However, for the outcome of the race more important is the rating in each state. Of the 11 swing States in seven while the margin for Clinton, follows from the average of public opinion polls published by the portal Politico. She leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, new Hampshire, Virginia, Florida. But if in Colorado, the gap is 10% (in the Clinton — 46,2%, trump — by 36.4%), in Florida, the gap is only 1% (44,2% vs 43,6%).

With trump support while Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina. Given the swing voter in Florida last week, trump for $2 million launched in the state for more commercials against Clinton and admitted her statements about the fact that half of the voters trump’s “unworthy people are racist, sexist, homophobic”).

Who will determine the President

In Pennsylvania, where a reporter visited last week, the situation for candidates is not easy: the largest city is Philadelphia support Democrats and vote for them all the past electoral cycles, however, the outcome of the vote will depend on the residents of suburbs and rural areas of the state, where in recent years the rule of President-Democrat Barack Obama has closed a production. Residents of such areas tend to support trump, the Democrat recognizes Savarese Ahmad, the founder of the legal firms and election campaigns.

Clinton can count on the votes of ethnic and sexual minorities, women and families with average incomes. The main trump of the electorate — white male working class. However, trump is trying to win over ethnic groups. The rally in Chester Thursday, which was visited by the correspondent , a Republican, began with words of sympathy not only to the police, caught under the fire of criticism after the events in Charlotte, where white police officer shot and killed a black, but also to the injured party. “African Americans want to raise children in peace and security, and we’ll give them”, — he declared to his supporters, though much enthusiasm, these words have caused: several hundred white supporters trump in the hall you could see dozens of ethnic minorities.

Several interlocutors from the camp of the Democrats and Republicans in Pennsylvania pointed out the importance in this campaign of supporters of the nasty party, ready for the presidential elections to support the candidate from rivals. Kerry Kennedy, President of the NGO engaged in the promotion of women in politics, recognizes that, in General, not all women support Clinton, often supported on other issues — tax, for example.

So, the two women at the rally, trump said that their main campaign is to abolish the health insurance system implemented by Obama, tax cuts and normalization of the migration policy, not a gender issue.

The office of the Republican party in the district of Delaware said that in his campaign rely on those who are unhappy with taxes and moderate Democrats. Similarly, Clinton is trying to entice Republicans, dissatisfied with the nomination of trump. There are such in the highest echelons of the party: President George W. Bush last week said publicly that supports the election of Clinton.

According to supporters of Clinton, it is enough to win in Pennsylvania, which gives 20 electoral votes to become President, and while the polls in the state in its favor, however, unequivocal confidence in the victory there, so in September, the state became the centre of attraction for her campaigning for Democrats. 13 September to campaign for Clinton came Barack Obama, this week with a visit there will arrive the first lady, Michelle Obama.

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