The results of the first round of presidential debates in the United States responded to both currency and commodity markets. Mexican peso exchange rate which is considered as an indicator of the chances of trump to win, rose — a sign that the probability of winning trump decreased. The Republican candidate is known for strong statements on the topic of fight against illegal immigration, plans to build a wall on the border with Mexico and critics of the free trade agreement between the US, Mexico and Canada (NAFTA). After debate, the peso has appreciated against the dollar by 1.6%, the Mexican currency best result in two months.
Quotes of the Japanese yen and gold, which are regarded by investors as a “safe Harbor” in the event of victory trump, after the debate fell that talks about the reduced risk of trump’s coming to power. Gold futures fell by 0.28%. Yen, as noted by Bloomberg weakened against 16 major currencies (including in relation to dollar on 0,5%).
The U.S. stock market, in turn prepare for growth — a sure sign of strengthening of the positions of Clinton, whose victory rather keep the market status quo. Futures on stock indexes, the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq are trading in positive territory by 0.2%.
Clinton increased the gap and in terms of a market for political predictions. According to the website Election Betting Odds, assess the dynamics of likely Clinton and trump on the basis of data on the rates on the site Betfair.com the probability of success Clinton after the debate increased by 6.8 percentage points (to 68.7%), the chances of trump, in contrast, declined by 4.5 percentage points (to 30.1%). And according to the market PredictIt (a project of Victoria University in New Zealand, where participants can bet real money), quotes to win Hillary Clinton jumped to 69 cents on $1 (63 cents), while quotes for the win trump has fallen from 40 cents per $1 up to 31.
According to the CNN poll, a large majority of viewers of the debate felt that Clinton looked better than trump — 62% against 27%. Candidates before the election, which will take place on November 8, there are still two rounds of debate.
If you focus on polls, then the chances of Clinton and trump by the end of September look equal. According to a survey by Bloomberg on September 26, in the choice between Clinton and trump voters ‘ preferences are equally divided — 46%. When choosing between four candidates (trump, Clinton, and Gary Johnson from libertarian and Jill Stein from the green”) advantage on the side of the Republican — 43% against 41% for Clinton.
On the eve of Citigroup in its forecast has increased the probability of victory trump from 35% to 40%, and Morgan Stanley in a research note pointed out that markets are not prepared for a possible victory trump. Investors should at least consider the possibility of an outcome similar to the Brexit” — analysts of the Bank.