Investors, who fear a possible victory of Republican Donald trump on the election of the President of the United States, have started to sell assets denominated in Mexican pesos, and buy rubles and Russian securities, according to Bloomberg.
“Buy the ruble against the peso right strategy with regard to the possible victory trump,” the Agency explained Paul McNamara of GAM, the asset Manager for $6 billion, including the eighth largest in the world bond Fund developing markets.
Investors fear that the election trump, known for his tough stance against Mexico, and criticizing the North American free trade area (NAFTA), could lead to a sharp deterioration of the economy of its southern neighbor the United States.
Starting in 2016, the dollar against the Mexican peso rose by almost 16%, and in the eve of the first debate of Donald trump with Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton’s peso fell to a historic low. On September 26, when a debate took place, one dollar was almost 20 pesos, however, after most of the polls showed that the victory in the first debate was won by Clinton, peso of the losses played.
Since the beginning of September the ruble exchange rate against the peso increased by more than 8%. 6 Sep for one peso gave 3,54 RUB, 25 September — only 3,24 RUB.
“If Mexico’s economy is slowing down in Russia, the situation is reversed. In addition, the Central Bank perfectly possible to maintain discipline,” — said the chief specialist of Bloomberg, UBS on the placement of assets in developing countries Michael Bolliger.
At the same time, skeptics have warned that in recent months the peso fell too hard, so falling on it is nowhere. The victory for trump in the presidential election, in their opinion, may cause widespread sell-off in emerging markets, which the victim can become the ruble.
In the course of trading on Wednesday, September 28, the Mexican peso exchange rate against the ruble has slightly decreased and is around of 3.29 rubles per peso. The peso to the dollar also reduced: one dollar, at the exchange give approximately 19,42 pesos.