The Russian economy has passed the lower point of the current recession”, experts of the Russian Academy of national economy and public administration (Ranepa) in a recent monitoring of the economic situation. Overcoming the bottom shows the dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators, they emphasize that despite the decline in GDP (-0.6% in annual terms), capital investment (-3,9%) and retail trade turnover (-5,6%), in Russia in the second quarter grew the index of industrial production (+1%) and agriculture (+2.5 percent), strengthening of the real effective exchange rate. However, the low economic activity can continue for several months, and to say that Russia is on a sustainable growth trajectory.
The economy is stuck at the bottom”, stated at the end of August the experts of the Higher school of Economics. In particular, decreased production of industry’s most reliable, according to the authors, an indicator of the economy. That assessment was accepted by the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev. The economy has moved from recession to stagnation, the Minister explained, adding that although she needs to show growth this year, is “not the growth we’d all like to have.”
Ranepa allows for two scenarios of Russian economy development till 2018, but they were both quite optimistic. First — the base (conservative), according to which a barrel of Urals oil will be at least bargain for $40 for all three years, but this will not prevent the strengthening of the Russian currency — the dollar will be worth 67,5, 65,3 64,9 and RUB, respectively. However, in this case, improvement of conditions of foreign trade can be expected, the authors emphasize.
With a favorable scenario for the end of 2016, the price of Urals will be $42 for an increase to $50 next to $60 in 2018, and the exchange rate will be 67,1, up 60.8 and 57.3 rubles per dollar. From the point of view of the ruble, both of Ranepa forecast is significantly more optimistic expectations of the Ministry of Finance. On Friday, the head of Department Anton Siluanov declared that the draft budget for the next three-year period at $40 per barrel laid a dollar to 67.5 RUB next year and 68.7 RUB. in 2018. stronger ruble expects the Agency will collapse in 2019 — RUB to 71.1 per dollar, respectively (Ranepa forecast for 2019 does not).
Real GDP in 2016, as economists predict the Ranepa, will decrease by 0.7—0.8%, in 2017 will grow by 0.5—0.9%, and a year later the 1.5 — 1.9 percent (depending on scenario). This roughly corresponds to the baseline forecast of the Central Bank, which also expects the economy to a growth trajectory in 2017.
Russia’s economy has adapted to the shocks, and this is evident from both scenarios, the authors write monitoring. To overcome the recession it took her two years, and potential growth will not prevent the adverse external environment and volatile global economic growth is a “good result”, experts stress. Russia may reach the annual growth rate at the level of 3-4%, but for this it is necessary to carry out structural reforms, which has repeatedly said the financial-economic bloc of the government, improving the business climate and lower inflation (target of the Central Bank for the next three years is 4%, but estimates are slightly more pessimistic than Ranepa).
In addition, indicate in the Ranepa, for the higher growth necessary to stabilize the budget system. This is a problem in 2016 — Siluanov last week reported that the deficit for the year can be from 3.5 to 3.7% of GDP, which is worse and the plan laid down in the law on the budget (3%), and earlier forecasts of the Ministry of Finance (3.3 per cent).