Hello from the 1990s: what to expect from the arrival of Kiriyenko in the Kremlin

On Wednesday, the Kremlin published a decree appointing a new first Deputy head of the presidential administration. As predicted , he became the head of state Corporation “Rosatom” Sergey Kiriyenko. Who held the post from Dec 2011 Vyacheslav Volodin on Wednesday was approved by the speaker of the state Duma. His replacement will oversee one of the most important areas — political block of the Kremlin.

According to former Federal officials and several sources close to the Kremlin, the candidacy of Kiriyenko could offer Kovalchuk brothers, in the interests of which is “Rosatom”. In particular, one of the brothers, Michael, head of the Kurchatov Institute, and the son of Yuri Kovalchuk, Boris worked as Deputy General Director of “Rosatom”. In this case, Kovalchuk will be relevant to the preparation and holding of presidential elections in 2018, says a source close to the Kremlin. Campaign for elections of the head of state — the primary task facing the new head of the political unit.

Another source close to the AP, saying that Kiriyenko is also a good relationship with the head of the Kremlin Directorate for state service and personnel Anton Fyodorov, who before moving to the Kremlin head of the “Rosatom”.

Kiriyenko himself in 1998, as Prime Minister, was represented by Vladimir Putin as the new Director of the FSB. In 1999, after the elections to the state Duma, the head of the SPS faction in the Parliament, in 2000, was appointed presidential envoy in the Volga Federal district. Then Institute the Embassy was only established and first representatives of the head of state was truly influential figures.

Volodin following approval by the speaker of the state Duma, told reporters that Kirienko — “professional man”: “He knows the work of the Parliament, he was a faction leader in the Duma, he has a good knowledge of the regions and, of course, the knowledge of the government. The set of these competencies suggests that this person is effective and has all the qualities needed to work in the framework of the high position he now occupied”.

Informed sources said that the post of curator of the political bloc was also considered the head of the public projects of the Kremlin Pavel Zenkovich, the Governor of Moscow region Andrey Vorobiev, General Director VGTRK Oleg Dobrodeyev and the Secretary of the Public chamber Alexander Brechalov.

Kiriyenko is, of course, people with other views than the past leadership of the political block of the Kremlin, says political analyst Leonid Davydov. “This is the only close to the power of the person who accurately called the murder of Nemtsov is a political one,” he said. Davydov notes that high position a person receives from the supporters of the reforms. “For reforms was made by Alexei Kudrin, whom the President called an expert, and German Gref, which can be attributed to the state businessmen. And Kiriyenko has got an important government post. The question now is, what will become of this, of course, symbolic purpose will remain a symbol or we will see movement,” he says.

According to the analyst Abbas Gallyamov, with the advent of Kiriyenko is likely to be a kind of liberalization of power: “Perhaps superficially decorative, and can be, and backbone. Kiriyenko, in principle, suitable in order to do the former, and in order to do the second, because he is a politician with the “right” history — a man who was once an ally of Nemtsov”. But on the other hand, the expert adds, Kiriyenko is not so much an ideologist, as a politician, which is simply used to solve the challenges it faces, and ideology for him is secondary. “So the question is, how Putin feels protective and derzhavnichestvo rate has exhausted itself. If he decides that he has exhausted, with his 85-percent support rating could afford to make the system turn to the right”.

Who will control the “United Russia” and onf

Administered by the Deputy head of the AP, responsible for domestic policies, traditionally focused on such issues as elections at all levels, the activities of public organizations, parties. Accordingly, the Kremlin has always exerted a very serious influence on the operations and processes occurring inside the largest Russian party “United Russia”. That was when the political bloc was in charge of the current assistant to the President Vladislav Surkov, as it was when Vyacheslav Volodin. At present, all key positions in the ruling party is the people of the now former first Deputy head of the AP. Same thing in the onf, which Volodin started, being the head of the government when Prime Minister Putin, and continued in the Kremlin. After the reshuffle in the presidential administration raises the question of what the practice will develop now.

“Kiriyenko is still “wounded” by the failure of 1998 (referring to a default in period, when Kiriyenko was Prime Minister. — ) while it is very ambitious, so it is not eliminated (from attempts to influence the EP and the onf. — ), — says a friend of the new first Deputy head of the AP. — Only need to understand that all this will happen gradually. But Volodin is not the person who gives up. So it will be a struggle.”

According to two sources close to the Kremlin, attempts Kiriyenko to leverage on the party in power is not excluded. In the first half of 2017, to be held report-back election Congress of the party, which will be re-elected all the manual. It is an opportune moment to try to change the inner-party situation, sure interlocutors .

The guide onf is also worried about the possible changes, says a source close to the AP. Still under the auspices of the popular front did not take place “Forum of action. Regions”, which was supposed to be the President. The first event was held in early July in Yakutsk, then it was moved to September in Irkutsk, but in the end postponed again. According to the official version, the forum moved at the request of activists front from Siberia and the Far East, reported by “RIA Novosti”.

The analyst Abbas Gallyamov believes that now is “an element of dual power”: “of Course, theoretically possible that the control center in operation with political parties and civic organizations can remain Volodin. It would be better to clearly define the boundaries of each authority. But not the fact that it will be done.” If accents are not arranged distinctly and clearly, and everything will be situational, “then it is possible that there would be some hardware struggle between the presidential administration and the state Duma, “United Russia” will be the subject of controversy.” But in principle, and Volodin, and Kirienko — “people are cautious, experienced in hardware, so I think to open confrontation will not come”.

“There is a component related to public policy, and she will be the speaker of the state Duma. There is a large amount of authority that exists at the Deputy head of the administration and recorded in the relevant regulations, — said political analyst Yevgeny Minchenko. — I can add that Volodin with Kiriyenko long familiar and their relationship is good.”

According to a source close to the Kremlin, the redistribution of power between the Duma and the political unit of AP is hardly likely: “the Redistribution of powers between the branches of government is not what it ever would be President.”

Further reshuffle in the Kremlin

The appointment of Kiriyenko in the Kremlin may entail changes in the management of domestic policy, which is administered by the curator of the political unit. According to several sources close to the presidential administration, the question of the resignation of the current head of the Department of internal policy of Tatiana Voronova — one of the key members of the team Volodina — discussed. As her possible mate “Kommersant”, formerly called the head of the regions of the state Corporation “Rosatom” Alexander Kharichev that from 2006 to 2009 held a post of the Deputy chief of Department of internal policy. Two people close to AP, they say that another possible candidate for change Voronova, the head of Rossotrudnichestvo Lyubov Glebova, which from 2001 to 2005 he worked as Deputy Kiriyenko in the Embassy of the Volga Federal district.

Meanwhile, a Federal official said Tatyana Voronova, “great job” and the urgent need for its replacement there. According to a source close to the Kremlin last Thursday Volodin said goodbye to the team: “it Was said that all remain in their places. But, on the other hand, nothing he can say in this situation and could not.”

Vladimir Putin has signed the decree about appointment of the new head of “Rosatom”. They became Alexei Likhachev, who served as first Deputy head of Ministry of economic development.

Likhachev graduated from the radiophysical faculty and the economic faculty of the State University. N. And. Lobachevsky in Nizhniy Novgorod. With Sergey Kiriyenko, they met in the late 1980s, when both were secretaries of the Gorky regional Committee of Komsomol, tells a source in “Rosatom”.

In 2000-2007 Likhachev became a member of the state Duma, and from 2008 to 2015 he was promoted from adviser to the first Deputy Minister of economic development. In the Ministry he was engaged in foreign trade activities.

According to political analyst Evgeny Minchenko, Likhachev at the head of “Rosatom” — a creature Kiriyenko. “Likhachev — a trusted person Kiriyenko, worked with Gref, always spoke briefly and to the point, was the Deputy of the state Duma. He is a competent negotiator, and his main task at the head of “Rosatom” is to perform a communicative function to negotiate, it has to do foreign trade experience, and Rosatom is now a priority foreign markets”, — explains Minchenko. “Rosatom” over the last ten years had increased a portfolio of orders in which $200 billion is foreign orders until 2013.

While Minchenko considers that the subject of control of Kovalchuk over the “Rosatom” are greatly exaggerated. Rosatom is a huge Corporation, it performs tasks set by the President,” says the analyst. “Kiriyenko has his own history of relations with Putin since 1997. They have a relationship of trust, Kiriyenko was part of a coalition of Putin’s victory in the parliamentary elections in 1999, and a new post Kiriyenko is a return to the origins of the first and quite a successful presidential term of Vladimir Putin”, — said Minchenko.

With the participation of Farida Rustamova