Raiffeisenbank predicted shortage of currency because of the scheme of sale of “Rosneft”


Raiffeisenbank believe that discussing the government scheme the privatization of “Rosneft”, which the company will give to the budget almost all of its accumulated liquidity may cause a temporary shortage of currency in the local market. “Regardless of the currency in which the funds of “Rosneft” will be transferred to the budget, this may cause a shortage of foreign exchange liquidity in the local market,” wrote wrote the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Denis Poryvai, in his review on Wednesday.

“It is fraught with short-term impact on interbank rates (increase — ) foreign currency operations before the end of the year,” he explained .

As reported in Wednesday’s Vedomosti, the government is discussing the scheme of privatization of “Rosneft”, which assumes that the company can buy back its stake to 19.5 per cent from Rosneftegaz for RUB 700 billion and sell it later to a strategic investor or parts on the market. “This confirmation from officials that privatization was not”, — analysts say.

Raiffeisenbank believe that options are selling currency on the market with simultaneous purchase of securities or direct transmission of the received currency “Rosneftegaz”, the Ministry of Finance.

Interviewed analysts do not agree with the assessments of Raiffeisen Bank. “All conclusions depend on how technically will be made this deal. In the case of the first option “Rosneft” pays dollars to the Ministry of Finance, the Agency somehow transfers the dollars of the Central Bank that “prints” a RUB and it turns out that the $ from the system go,” — said a senior economist for Russia and CIS Dmitry Field of ING.

However, he stresses, there is another option, according to which Rosneft sells dollars in the market for rubles and, in fact, these rubles are paid in the framework of this transaction.

“If all the calculations are conducted in roubles, the currency will remain in the system and no shortage will occur,” adds Field.

Head of operations in the monetary market of Bank “Metallinvest” Sergey Romanchuk believes that this privatization deal, the Ministry of Finance or the Central Bank hardly will go to extraordinary measures.

“In my opinion, the connection between the fact that Rosneft has foreign exchange balances and it will use them to buy your package from the government, are far-fetched. If you follow this logic, then you need the special intervention of the Central Bank, to which it is unlikely that departing from the principles by which it implements its monetary policy. So I think that’s a realistic scenario, and “Rosneft” will solve the problem of funding this transaction otherwise, without the use of currency balances, or using them, on the contrary, in view of ensuring for attracting rubles,” — said Romanchuk.

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