The Central Bank estimated the impact of the purchase of Bashneft by Rosneft on the exchange rate


Selling currency Rosneft to buy the state-owned controlling stake of “Bashneft” can cause the strengthening of the ruble, said the first Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia Ksenia Yudaeva in an interview with Bloomberg.

“This may have little impact on the ruble, which other things being equal, maybe a little stronger temporarily, but nothing more”, — said Yudaeva.

On Friday, according to 14:58 MSK on the Moscow stock exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble has appreciated by 0.55% to 62,429 rubles per dollar, the Euro was up 0.43% and was trading at 69,553 RUB for Euro.

Thursday, October 6, it became known that the government issued a Directive to allow “Rosneft” to buy of 50.08% of shares of “Bashneft” at a price not higher than 330 billion roubles (originally the consulting company E&Y estimated the package to 297-315 bn). According to the guidelines, the members of the Board of Directors of Rosneft representing the state, should vote for this deal and to instruct the head of the company Igor Sechin until October 15 to sign the contract of purchase and sale.

In addition to government’s stake in Bashneft, the government plans to sell 19.5% of Rosneft shares. “Vedomosti” reported on Wednesday that the government is discussing the scheme, involving the purchase by company of its own shares from Rosneftegaz for RUB 700 billion and its subsequent sale to a strategic investor or parts on the market. In turn analysts Raiffeisen Bank has warned that such a scheme of privatization may cause the risk of shortage of currency in the market.

There are two mechanisms for performing such transactions: “will selling currency on the open market, and it will be a settlement with the budget in rubles, or the budget will receive money in foreign currency, then conversion into rubles directly to the Central Bank”, explained Bank analyst Denis Poryvai. According to him, none of them can not be called comfortable for the Russian market. “In any of these options the currency from the local market somehow goes accordingly, there will be a deficit of foreign exchange liquidity. It’s hard to say what will happen. Part of the currency Rosneft may sell, it will cause the strengthening of the ruble, and may not sell, may be a weakening of the ruble. This volatility negatively affected the market participants, their expectations,” — said the analyst.

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