The net long position (the difference between the number of long and short positions) of speculators in futures and options on the ruble traded at the exchange CME, for the week 28 September to 4 October rose 5377 contracts, 17 406. Both figures and weekly growth, and the position at the end of the week, a record at the time such rates since 2009, follows from the data of the Commission on futures trading USA (CFTC).
The ruble is one of the best bets this year among the currencies (plus 17% against the dollar YTD). On Friday, October 7, the dollar against the ruble on the Moscow stock exchange fell to RUB of 61.95 per dollar (at least since October of last year). Support for the Russian currency had the agreement of OPEC restricting oil production declared September 28: since that time, the Brent oil price increased by 13%. At the end of trading on Friday, Brent closed at $51,93 for the barrel.
The number of long positions on the ruble on the CME has increased by almost 7 million (a record increase), to 31.1 thousand contracts with a nominal volume of 77.8 billion RUB Short positions rose from 12.1 to 13.7 thousand thousand
The average daily trading volume for futures and options on the exchange rate on the American stock exchange in September 2016 rose 179% from the same month last year, CME Group reported in early October.
The ruble is any asset for investment, if the investor believes in the future growth of oil, said this week at a conference in London, head of debt markets of developing countries BlackRock’s Sergio Trigo Paz. “We believe that oil will go to $57-59 and test the level of $60 per barrel,” he was quoted by Bloomberg.
But the Russian Finance Ministry believes the ruble will weaken compared to current levels. The Agency establishes for 2017 the average rate of the dollar to 67.5 rubles., and by 2019 — has a 71.1 RUB In real terms, the ruble exchange rate “will remain stable”, said the “Main directions of budget policy for the 2017-2019 years,” published on Friday. On the strengthening of the ruble in 2016, the Federal budget has already lost 990 billion rubles, follows from the data of the Federal Treasury on the 1st of October.