The Ministry of Finance has placed on the portal regulation.gov.ru the draft Federal budget for the three years 2017-2019. Thursday, October 13, it will consider the government at its meeting.
President Vladimir Putin, speaking at the forum “VTB Capital” “Russia calls”, has admitted that a return to a three-year budget — “< … > and too early for today’s conditions”. “Still, a dose of healthy optimism among the government present, and, of course, I even support”, — said Putin.
Revenues should grow stronger than the cost — reduced
Revenues next year will be in nominal terms, almost at the level of the current year of 13.44 trillion, the Total expenditure proposed in $ 16,18 trillion rubles as a result, the budget deficit will amount to 2.74 trillion rubles, or 3.16% of GDP to the bill. As a percentage of GDP, the deficit will be slightly larger than previously laid by the Ministry of Finance in the programme document “Main directions of budget policy” — there has been 3%.
But compared to the 2016 deficit 2017 in nominal terms will be reduced to 10 or even 16%. In the amendments to this year’s budget introduced this week in the state Duma, the Finance Ministry proposes to register a deficit of 3.03 trillion, but expects that the gap will be greater at the end of the year is about 3.26 trillion rubles.
In 2018, the budget deficit, according to the project of the Ministry of Finance will decrease to 2.2% of GDP in 2019 — up to 1.2% of GDP. Such a serious fiscal consolidation should occur at the expense of increasing revenues by 1.4 trillion by 2019, and reduce the order of 500 billion roubles in expenditure, planning, the Ministry of Finance.
The reserve Fund will replace loans
Unlike 2016, the Finance Ministry proposes to change the structure of deficit financing towards less use of sovereign funds and greater use of borrowed funds. To borrow on the domestic market is offered at 1.05 trillion rubles each year within the three-year period (net borrowing). It is twice more than the Finance Ministry plans to borrow in 2016. Given the need for maturing in 2017 government securities to 829 billion rubles, the Finance Ministry will need to place OFZ to the amount of nearly 1.9 trillion rubles.
From the Reserve Fund in 2017 to take on the financing deficit of 1.15 trillion rubles, and this means that the Reserve Fund will be completely exhausted. Will have to use the national welfare Fund (NWF), of which the Ministry of Finance wants to spend 660 billion rubles in 2017. The peak of NWF spending will be in 2018 at 1.14 trillion In a result by the end of the three-year budget in the budget deficit will be about 2.8 trillion rubles (now it is 4.6 trillion rubles). To replenish sovereign funds during this period will not be — the implementation of fiscal rules was suspended until 1 February 2020.
In 2017 the Ministry of Finance sets the bar on foreign loans of $7 billion, as it was in pre-crisis years. Earlier, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov explained that in principle, the budget could do without foreign loans, but you need to maintain the liquidity of the sovereign Eurobonds.
The government will increase domestic borrowing, said earlier on Wednesday Siluanov at the forum “VTB Capital”. But to do this, he said, should be cautious — it is important “not to overreact” to investors began to demand more short-term bonds and high interest rates. The Minister stressed that the budget plan for three years does not involve tax reform or raising the retirement age. “The ideology of the government not to increase taxes,” — said Siluanov, on the contrary, changes are possible from the point of view of relief for business share of direct taxes.
18% of the costs classified
The open part of the budget for 2017 is for 13, 31 trillion rubles. This means that about 18% of all expenditures will be classified (roughly the same proportion will fall on a closed costs to 2018-2019). This is less than in 2016, following which the closing level of spending will exceed 22% (post-Soviet high).
In the context of the functional areas of budget expenses it is planned to spend next year on social policy — almost 5.1 trillion rubles. under section “national economy” is planned allocations over 2.1 trillion “national defense” will require in the open part of the budget of about 950 billion rubles taking into account of secret expenditures financing of the defense articles will reach 2.84 trillion rubles., previously reported, the Ministry of Finance in the “Main directions of budget policy”. This is 27% less than planned to be allocated for national defense in 2016.