The last battle
In the night of Thursday in the campus of University of Nevada-Las Vegas held its third and final formal debate between the candidates in the U.S. presidential election 2016 Hillary Clinton and Donald trump.
This is the last before election day November 8, official debates organized by the so-called Commission on presidential debates (CPD). This NGO was created in 1980-e years at total investments of Republicans and Democrats for the impartial production of the national debate.
In addition, next week, October 26, at the University of Colorado will host additional debates, arranged by the Fund of the Free & Equal Elections. This is a relatively new format that is attracting candidates from “third parties” to public debate. In fact, during the campaigns of 2008 and 2012, in these debates were participated in only they, without the representatives of Republicans and Democrats.
This time two candidates-a headlining tour, their participation in the debate in Colorado confirmed trump that in a sense represents a breakthrough for the Foundation, Free & Equal Elections. In addition to his offer to speak at these debates took candidates for U.S. President from the green Party, two conservative movements (the Constitution party and the reform Party), and by American Communists (the Party of socialism and liberation).
As with previous election campaigns Fund Free & Equal Elections is closely cooperating with the TV channel RT America, this year leading the debate will be a well-known journalist & presenter on TV, Larry king.
In contrast to Fund Free & Equal Elections, which seeks to embrace the maximum possible number of candidates, the organizer of the official debates CPD is jointly funded by the two largest parties, therefore, forced to create barriers to the selection of participants. First criteria: the candidate should be presented on the ballot in enough States to in theory qualify for half of the electoral votes. The second criterion: the average popularity of the candidate according to various surveys should not be below 15% (which is an effective barrier against candidates from “third parties”).
Themselves the debate last night in Las Vegas, was organized on the same principle as the first debate of the campaign in late September. An hour and a half of airtime was divided into six thematic blocks of 15 minutes each. Right to ask questions was only the leading. The previous, the second debate had a format similar to “straight line” when the questions to the candidates put “ordinary Americans” — on the Internet or in person, from a group of selected sociologists audience.
The six topics selected by leading, were as follows: national debt, immigration, the economy, the reform of the Supreme court, the problems of international politics and their ability to lead the country. The role of the moderator was journalist Chris Wallace: leading on the conservative Fox News channel, which is a member of the Democratic party, although, by his own admission, voted for representatives of different parties.
A hint of independence
Judging by the complete transcription of the latest debate, published by The Washington Post, foreign policy issues arose at the initiative of the candidates in almost each of the six thematic blocks. For example, talking about tax policy, trump suddenly jumped to the topic of NATO and wondering why U.S. allies do not pay Washington for political and military protection.
The theme is Russia emerged after the transition to the second set of questions about immigration. Wallace asked Clinton to clarify her words from the hacked correspondence of the head of her election headquarters about the need for “a single in the Western hemisphere market with open borders”. The democratic candidate noted that they discussed energy cooperation with Latin America — a continuing response to the accusations against Russia for hacking the servers of her party.
“So, Chris, I think the most important question this evening is whether trump is to admit guilt of the Russians in these attacks, to promise not to take help from Vladimir Putin in the election campaign,” Clinton added. In response, trump said that Moscow and Washington should work together to fight ISIS (banned in Russia as a terrorist organization), which may prevent the lack of respect for Putin, Clinton and Barack Obama. “Of course, Putin would be better to have a puppet as the President of the United States,” retorted Clinton.
Trump countered that accusation with the statement that “puppet” in the hands of Putin Clinton, because she allowed herself to “beat” at key moments of international policy — in Syria, Iraq and Libya. “And I know that Putin has surpassed her [Clinton] and Obama on every point — and Syria, too — that’s why she doesn’t love him,” said trump.
At the same time, the American public is much more worried about trump’s attitude to the election results, rather than the potential confrontation of two nuclear powers. The fact that the Republican candidate twice declined to answer the question, will he admit defeat in the elections. Thus, according to the publication Politico, he has broken an unspoken tradition of accepting any outcome, based on what the stability of the American political system. On the other hand, according to the Agency Bloomberg, this could only be a demagogic attempt to play on anti-system attitude of the electorate.
Whose debt is greater
Trump and Hillary radically divergent views on what measures should the U.S. economy. Key provisions of the economic plan Clinton raising the minimum wage and increasing taxes for wealthy Americans. Trump said that these steps will add an extra $20 trillion to us national debt. Clinton, in turn, wirkola trump is that he caters to the interests of the rich, by promising to cut taxes for people who live well. According to Clinton, the path to “another economic crisis.”
Bloomberg reports that the financial analysts from the Washington Tax center analyzed the measures that trump offers. They came to the conclusion that his plan will lead to a similar increase in external debt, but in 20 years time. Such forecasts are calculated usually in the ten-year term, and at this point in time plan of trump wins against the Clinton plan by about two times. According to the Tax center, during the ten years of the “trump plan” can lead to the fact that U.S. debt will rise by $7.2 trillion. The RNC said that the analysts are wrong.
At the same time, the assessment of the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible attitude to the external debt showed that the economic program Clinton will add to the national debt, the US $200 million in ten years.
Split the nation
According to the CNN poll, the third time in a row the winner of the debate was Clinton with 52% support vs 39% for trump. The same share award gives the Republican polling firm YouGov. Thus, the share of Clinton is slightly smaller than the CNN — according to the YouGov survey, 49% of respondents gave the victory to her.
Most of the Internet users on the website of the newspaper the Washington Times in the first hours after the debate, more than 70% voted Trump. The speech, Clinton praised as “victorious” only 17% of the readers. This gap is determined by the political preferences of readers of various publications and shows that voters both candidates heard exactly what I expected.
According to a study by Pew Research Center, supporters of Clinton and supporters of the trump radically distant from each other in their perception of which issues are currently most important for the country. For example, 81% of trump voters think that life has deteriorated over the last 50 years “for people like them”, and on the contrary, a majority of voters (59%) Clinton believe that their life became generally better.
About two thirds of the voters trump believe that immigration (66%) “very big” problem for the United States. Among the supporters of Clinton, only 17% agree with this statement. Trump’s supporters are also more likely than supporters of Clinton, called crime (52% vs 42%) and lack of jobs (48% vs. 33%) among their concerns.
After a series of debates for the support of the Clinton electorate (until September rather unstable) seriously entrenched. All the latest national polls give preference to her. Among the studies conducted directly before the final debate, the separation of Clinton from trump varies from 4% according to the YouGov 15% according to the Public Religion Research Institute.
In this case, said The Wall Street Journal, Americans by the middle of October back to a January 2016: 51% of respondents ready to vote for Clinton, 41% for trump. Moreover, Republicans have a consistently high rating is consistently below 30% of Americans say that it is positive to include.
The bookies are also confident stake on the victory of Clinton. So, Irish bookies Paddy Power is taking bets on trump based 9/2 (18% chance of victory), and the Clinton — 11/2 (85% probability). Moreover, the past few days, emphasizes the bookie, was marked by a stable inflow rates of solely in favor of Clinton. Accordingly, the victory trump can lead to a record payout for bets on political events in the history of bookmakers, Paddy Power warns.