Nassim Taleb spoke about the origin of the next “black Swan”


Global “black Swan” (rare, unlikely event of a large scale) future is a confrontation between the West and China or the West and Islam, and not the conflict with Russia, says Nassim Taleb, author of the acclaimed book on these events “Black Swan”. He told about it in interview “Style”, a subsidiary of the portal .

In the Middle ages, the greatest danger came from the Mongol Empire of Genghis Khan; “they grasped the moment and went on a huge site just as easily and just as you enter the coffee shop,” said Taleb. “I have a feeling that something similar is happening now with China. It is a country with a different way of thinking”, — he said. As a result, according to him, the world “black Swan” is the West vs China or West vs Islam. “This is about much larger things than the Crimea, and so on,” says the thinker.

In Russia Taleb came last week, just after a visit to Ukraine. “Even if Russia beat the hammer, she will survive: you fight and win. You have thick skin and you anthropia,” said Taleb, referring to his concept of “anthropoi” (systems that benefit from shocks and volatility).

Taleb believes that the fall in oil prices is an opportunity for Russia to reach a new level. “The best thing that you could happen is the fall of oil prices. <…> You have a huge scientific and technological knowledge embedded in society. All the brains in the West or from Russia, or with Russian education. All of probability theory came from Russia, all the best experts I know are from Moscow University. Although even if you had one Kolmogorov (Andrey Kolmogorov, Russian mathematician, founder of modern probability theory. — ) it would be enough!”, — said Taleb.

Russian President Vladimir Putin — a leader who “causes in people a sense of security” (including in Syria), and Russia — “let not 100%, but part of the West,” says Taleb. “The West now there is tension, but that could change. The current “cold war” mentality on the part of America not forever,” he said.

The book of Taleb “the Black Swan. Under the sign of unpredictability” was first published in 2007 and became a bestseller. The author has developed a theory extremely improbable, unpredictable events in history, science, Finance, which entail serious consequences. Before Taleb professionally traded options, and his concept of “black swans” is used in the investment strategy of the hedge Fund Universa Investments (Taleb is a “scientific adviser” of the Fund). Firm specializiruetsya on finding cheap options on the S&P 500 index and other similar tools that can jump in price during market shocks. In August 2015 Universa earned more than $1 billion in one week on the background of volatility in the market, reported The Wall Street Journal.

Taleb said in an interview that is “anything but an economist.” “Economists — it’s all bullshit (bullshit), I always scoff at them all possible ways, so they don’t like me”, he said.

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