Russia’s GDP in the third quarter rose 0.1% compared with the second quarter (adjusted for seasonal factors), reported in the latest review of Vnesheconombank. The last time growth was recorded in the third quarter of 2014.
The termination of the recession, which lasted eight quarters, it was expected, said in his comments to the report of the chief economist VEB Andrei Klepach. “Certainly, a key factor contributing to the fracture trend is the renewed growth of consumer demand, which is long enough to pull the economy down. In addition, positive growth in the third quarter was provided favorable conditions for agriculture, the resumption of growth in mining and the cessation of the decline in investment activity”, — he said. However, to talk about overcoming of stagnation, according to Klepach. The economy “continues to balance near zero trajectory,” he said.
Contribution to quarterly data have made the growth of the economy in August, when GDP grew by 0.3% (previously, the VEB has been said about the growth of just 0.1%, but revised its rating). However, data for September “were not so favorable,” says Klepach — according to VEB, the GDP in the first month of autumn fell by 0.1%. Analysts attribute this to the fact that in September support to the economy had ceased to provide agriculture (this was influenced by cool and rainy weather). In addition, the decline of investment activity, decreased production of engineering and construction. However, recovering the household sector. According to the VEB, and increased real incomes of the population — on 0,5% in comparison with August. However, according to official data of Rosstat, they fell by 2.7%.
The Ministry expects that Russia’s GDP in 2016 will decrease by 0.6%. The Agency has downgraded its Outlook — in may it expected a decline of 0.2% under the baseline scenario. The reason is the fall in retail trade turnover, explaining to Deputy Minister Alexei Vedev.
The Russians accumulate the funds, but do not invest them complained to the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev. Investment activity will begin in the second half of 2017, he said. GDP, according to the Ministry of economic development, will begin to grow in the fourth quarter of this year.
Rosstat data on GDP in the third quarter was published.