The deal to buy Rosneft of its shares from Rosneftegaz may lead to a shortage of ruble liquidity in the interbank market, said the head of analytical Department of Sberbank CIB Alexander Kudrin. “There are certain risks that, if the transaction will take place before the end of the year, and in December, Rosneftegaz will transfer the funds received to the budget, this may lead to an increase in rates on interbank loans,” he says. However, he is not waiting for the global shortage of rubles”, — he said.
According to Kudrin, if the banking system will take 700 billion rubles (in such a sum estimated the package of 19.5% of Rosneft shares belonging to “Rosneftegaz”), the banks will have to seek other sources of refinancing. “The most reliable, but expensive, is the Central Bank. Short-term liquidity in this case is the way” — emphasizes the analyst. Tuesday, November 1, rates in the interbank market on overnight ruble loans were at the level of 9.87–of 10.42% per annum.
In Sberbank CIB do not exclude that banks to attract liquidity will have to sell Eurobonds or other monetary assets. “In the case of an acute shortage of FX liquidity, banks will be able to use the portfolio of Eurobonds, which has grown strongly over the past year and a half” — says the analyst of investment Bank Andrey Pavlov-Rusinov.
Possible shortage of liquidity, most likely, will not lead to the strengthening of the ruble, because the banks are not a lot of currency to sell,” says Kudrin. He says that if at the end of the year and will experience increased volatility of the ruble, it will most likely, not due to the lack of liquidity, and external factors.
He recalled that in early October, the banks faced a liquidity shortage, but not the ruble as currency. This led to a sharp rise in interest rates on short loans in foreign currency. The catalyst of the problems with the currency was the deterioration of the situation with dollar liquidity in Europe due to problems with Deutsche Bank.
At the end of the year when companies will have to pay the external debt, the situation with deficiency of currency may also escalate”, — warned the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Denis Poryvai. In his review published on October 5, the analyst has also predicted a deficit, and foreign exchange liquidity on the Russian market in the case of Rosneft’s purchase of its stake of 19.5%.
“Regardless of the currency in which the funds of “Rosneft” will be transferred to the budget, this may cause a shortage of foreign exchange liquidity in the local market,” said Poryvai in his review. In his opinion, it is fraught with short-term impact on interbank rates — they rise by the end of the year.
According to Alexander Kudrin, Sberbank CIB, repurchase of shares of “Rosneft” will only lead to a temporary shortage of liquidity. “The proceeds from the sale of shares of Rosneftegaz may be placed on Bank accounts. If the company will list them in the budget, they still will later return to the banking system in the form of various budgetary payments”, — he explained.
On intentions “Rosneft” to repurchase its own shares from Rosneftegaz became known in the end of September. In mid-October, President Vladimir Putin said that the company has the money for it. “Indeed, it was confirmed that the money in the accounts of the company, there are additional funds from the market, with the domestic financial market at the end of all operations, including sales, and if necessary, temporary acquisition and redemption of shares “Rosneft”, the company will not need,” — said Putin.