Next year the Russian economy will grow by 1.2% after shrinking 0.6% this year, said in its forecast published Thursday, the European Bank for reconstruction and development (EBRD). The figure above the may forecast, then, the Bank expected growth in 2017 by exactly 1%. To improve expectations influenced by higher oil prices, the recovery in consumer demand and investment, the report said. However, without “significant reforms” growth and will be limited to 1-2%: production facilities become obsolete and investments will remain low. Investment activity will grow in the second half of 2017, said the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev.
Expectations EBRD is more optimistic than the official baseline forecast of economic development. In 2017, the Agency expects GDP growth of only 0.6%. The Ministry three times over the last month changed its forecast, wrote “Vedomosti”, in its second variant, the GDP growth next year is estimated at only 0.2 percent. In 2018 (the final script, which has already been submitted to the state Duma), the Ministry of economic development expects an increase of GDP by 1.7% and in 2019 — by 2.1%.
Pessimistic EBRD economic growth in 2017 looks and the Russian Central Bank. According to him, GDP will grow by 0.5—1%. In the next two years growth will be 1.5—2% for a controller.
The recession in Russia has already seems to reached a low point, say the economists of the EBRD. Russia’s GDP in the third quarter rose for the first time in 2014, although only 0.1% reported earlier, the Bank (which means technically out of recession). Growth in the economy later reported and the Central Bank, noting, however, that with the exception of the seasonal factor, was “close to zero”.
Because of cheap oil, low investment and consumer demand, the Russian economy in the first half of the year fell by 0.9% in annual terms, noted in the report of EBRD. The decline in exports of raw materials were offset by declines in imports. While Russia has success in exports, which was achieved thanks to the weak ruble, but they are limited to agriculture, food industry, chemicals, rubber and plastic, noted in the EBRD.