At the finish line: what Clinton and trump came to the election


The U.S. presidential election will be held on 8 November. A few days before this, the ratings of the major candidates — Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald trump almost equal. In an attempt to attract the electorate candidates for the White house hold the last mass meeting with voters. The potentially unpredictable outcome of the vote, forcing experts to consider a variety of scenarios, including the participation of Congress in the election of the future head of the American state.

Magic numbers

On the eve of the key dates of sociological research on a national scale indicate the alignment of the ratings of Clinton and trump. For example, the poll IBD/TIPP, the results of which were announced on 5 November, showed support for a democratic candidate at 44.2%, while for Republicans were ready to vote for 43.7% of the respondents. Data Reuters/Ipsos testify to a slight advantage for Clinton — it was supported by 43% of respondents, while trump — 39%. The Challenger from the Democratic party leads in most other sociological research on a national scale. Only joint polls by the LA Times/USC Tracking prefer Trump. For it was ready to vote 48%, while his main rival, 43%.

The ranking of candidates from “third” parties rarely exceed 5%. The most popular of these is the representative of the libertarian party’s Gary Johnson. In the same poll Reuters/Ipsos, it was ready to support only 6% of voters.

Realizing that in the last days before the vote, he had the opportunity to attract more undecided voters, trump is waging an active campaign. Speaking in Florida, he again criticized Clinton for weak for a potential head of state’s health. “I spend five to six events every day, and Hillary’s going home to sleep. She doesn’t have the required energy to run the country,” said 70-year-old Republican. On 6 November he spoke in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. From Clinton on this day in the schedule includes performances in Ohio and new Hampshire.

Unexpected convergence between ratings by the two politicians — 18 Oct Clinton was in the lead with the advantage of 7.1 percentage points — is due to a new round of scandal around the electronic correspondence of former Secretary of state.

Scandalous trail

On October 28 it became known that the Federal Bureau of investigation warned Congress about the investigation in connection with the discovery of e-mails that might contain sensitive information on the computer of Anthony Wiener. Last married to hum Abedin — one of the closest advisers to Clinton (August Abedin filed for divorce). Interested in FBI letter was sent from the personal server to Clinton at the time, when she headed the state Department. In July 2016, the U.S. Department of justice has already stopped the investigation against Clinton for doing official correspondence via personal email.

The actions of the head of the FBI James Comey, who publicly referred to the investigative activities of his office, threatening a possible Clinton presidency, has drawn sharp criticism from both the Democratic party and by part of the legal community. It soon became clear that the Ministry of justice informally’t recommend Komi to bring their actions to light.

Trump uses the scandal surrounding emails Clinton as evidence of her corruption and contempt for the law. During one of his last public speeches, the Republican said the investigation against his rival will last for years. “What a disgusting disgrace and shameful spectacle,” he said.

Clinton drew the attention of the voters on the temperament of trump, who, according to her, is not suitable for the head of state. “Imagine how easy to take the Donald trump of himself, he began the real — and not in a Twitter war at three in the morning”, — said the candidate of the Democrats.

Campaign trump, in turn, still reeling from the scandalous video in which a businessman talks about the advantages of their situation, wealthy men for sexual harassment to women. The video has caused uproar in the media, has cost Trump support of many influential Republicans, for example, Condoleezza rice, and could even be a catalyst for a political career, Michelle Obama — wife of the current President Barack Obama. Michelle made a speech in which harshly criticized trump and encouraged to fight sexism.

Against the background of constant scandals, both candidates came to election day with a huge anti-rating. For example, according to the survey by Economist/YouGov, is critical to Clinton are 59%, and by the Trump — 58% of Americans. The most influential world media in their editorial pieces almost unanimously supported Clinton, while stressing that the elections of 2016 in the US were voting for the lesser of two evils.

The third is not superfluous

Arose in the late autumn of uncertainty because of the statements trump’s refusal to admit defeat, his accusations of corruption of the electoral system, ongoing investigations of the correspondence of Clinton and all this has led to the emergence of a scenario in which the President can be someone the third. The U.S. Constitution vests the house of representatives to choose the President in that case, if none of the candidates failed to gain 270 of the 538 electoral votes. While most likely — the conservative from Utah Evan Macmillan.

US presidential elections — indirect. Ordinary voters are voting for electors in your state. In most States, operates a scheme under which the candidate with the most electoral votes gets them all. In turn, the electors have considerable freedom in their preferences. Traditionally, they should support the candidate who won the most votes in the General vote, but may make the opposite choice. The last time this situation arose in 2000. Then the electoral College has supported Republican George W. Bush, while Democrat albert Gore received more votes in the popular vote.

The electors vote on December 19. Congress will convene for the formal counting of votes of the Board on 6 January 2017. This process is overseen by the current Vice-President is Joseph Biden.

Another option is the equal distribution of votes of the electoral College. The publication Politico says that in this case, to decide the fate of the presidency will be the house of representatives. Delegations from the States have to decide whom they support, by voting within delegations. As a result, each state — all 50 of them — will vote for one of the candidates. To win, a candidate must obtain the support of 26 States. In that case, if the delegation of congressmen from any state will not be able to agree on support to any candidate, the state does not participate in the vote.

Complicated US electoral system allow even the possibility that trump could become President, but not paired with Mike Pence, and Tim Cain, candidate for Vice-President with Clinton. This option is possible if the electoral College will vote equally for Clinton and trump in the ratio of 269:269 and none of the electors will not violate discipline, that is, support the choice of ordinary voters.

In this case, the Republican house of representatives can vote for trump. The Senate, under the control of Democrats, will choose the Vice President. In this case, Kane will be paired up with trump. Kane may even become an acting President if the Senate approves his candidacy faster than the house of representatives would choose the President. Powers Kane will be in effect until the election of a new President congressmen.

November 8 in the US simultaneously with the presidential election will be a vote in the house of representatives of Congress, the fight will go for all 435 “voting”. In addition, Americans will decide the fate of the 34 seats in the Senate, and in 12 States held gubernatorial elections.

 

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