The Russian economy is undergoing the “process “simplification” or even structural degradation”. About it it is spoken in arrived in the Bulletin “Comments on government and business”, compiled by experts from the development center of the Higher school of Economics.
As analysts explain, the commodity sector have reached historic highs, and in non-oil remain negative or flat trends. “The fact that in the third quarter, the index of basic industries grew by 0.4% in the second quarter, it is logical to interpret as a sign that the negative trend is broken and finally the transition to the phase of cyclical growth. However, as it turns out, almost all contributions have been secured commodity sectors, the dynamics of which almost nothing to do with the General state of the economy; moreover, in subsequent quarters, their contribution is likely to be negative”, — emphasized in the Bulletin.
Experts note “strengthening of the rent gradient” of the Russian economy. According to them, in the third quarter of 2016 compared with average after seasonal adjustment before the crisis of 2014 in the Russian economy grew by only three sectors — agriculture (6.6%), mining (3.6 per cent) and turnover (3.4 percent).
All other sectors, experts say, on the contrary, during the crisis subsided. In particular, manufacturing — 7.2%, wholesale trade — 10.2%, construction — by 12,8%, retail trade — 14,7%, paid services — by 2.4%. On average, the commodity sector during the crisis increased by 4.0%, while non-oil fell by 9.3%, analysts say.
In recent months, they note, a raw roll has only increased: in the third quarter, agriculture grew by 1.8% (an increase from the previous quarter, seasonally adjusted), extraction of minerals without the contribution of oil services — 1.1% turnover 3.6%. Among non-primary sectors grew only construction (2.7%), and the previous quarter it fell by 7.7%.
The growth trend is not formed, the situation is normalized in 2017, experts say. For 2016, analysts of the center to retain the forecast for the GDP decline at 0.9%.