By the beginning of the next decade, OPEC will be assessed at only $60 per barrel, should be published in Tuesday’s annual forecast of the organization. In this case, oil prices will recover only to the level of the crisis year of 2009, follows from the price statistics BP.
In 2016 the average price oil “baskets” the OPEC will be $40 per barrel and will rise to $5 annually until 2021. Thus, in 2021, the price of oil, OPEC set at $65 per barrel, in 2015 prices equivalent to $60, the report says the cartel (.pdf).
Oil OPEC basket, consisting of 14 varieties, typically cost $4-5 cheaper than the international benchmark Brent. By early November, the average price of a barrel of Brent in 2016 is $44.
OPEC expects that the market situation will stabilize world oil demand will grow (according to the new forecast of the cartel, by 2021 the demand for oil will grow by 6.2 million barrels. a day, up to 99.2 million barrels), production in countries outside OPEC in 2016-2017 will be reduced, and the rate of recovery will be lower than previously expected. This in turn will lead to the reduction of the oversupplied market and declining commercial stocks. Despite the fact that in 2018, it is expected that the level of production in the exporting countries outside OPEC will grow, the limiting factor for production will lower costs for exploration and development of new fields in previous years.
The new estimates of OPEC on the price of oil is much more modest than those that were given in the final forecast year ago — then the organization expected that by 2020, oil prices reached a nominal level of $80 (in 2014 prices — $70, 7 per barrel).
Despite the fact that, according to the OPEC forecasts, conditions in the oil market in the next five years will be favorable, the average annual oil price of $60 (in real prices) is itself quite low. For comparison, about the same level ($61,67 per barrel) was the average Brent oil price crisis in the oil market for 2009, according to the statistical Yearbook of BP in 2015 prices.
In a new forecast, OPEC said demand growth of oil and in the long term, by 2040 it will grow by 15%, to 109.4 million barrels. a day. Demand growth will be mainly driven by developing economies.