A reboot will not
Wednesday, November 9, Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a congratulatory telegram to Donald Trump, which “expressed the hope that joint efforts to develop Russian-American relations out of crisis”. The establishment of US relations with Russia was one of the election campaign trump, but most of the experts and politicians proposed to separate campaign rhetoric from political reality and not to wait for the reboot between the Kremlin and Washington.
“In the American elite formed a negative consensus against Russia. I don’t see future US President need this consensus to change”, — said the head of the Center for global interests Nikolai Zlobin.
Not waiting for a reboot in relations, and Andrei Kolesnikov of Moscow Carnegie Center. “It is believed that trump is more negotiability. But trump can dramatically change its position,” — said the expert.
Program Director of the international discussion club “Valdai” by Andrey sushentsov pointed out that great changes in Russian-American relations prevent the “structural factors”. And “the figure of the next President here, plays a secondary role.” According to him, the United States will not meet Russia on security issues in Europe and accommodation in the region ABOUT.
“Despite a number of sympathetic reviews, trump has not offered anything concrete to improve relations, — suggested Sushentsov. — His presidency would be much uncertainty for Russia. Russian foreign policy is the practice of relying on some kind of certainty, even if negative. In this sense, leadership is Hillary Clinton more understandable perspective, despite the fact that it is Russia involved in this race, accusing trump in relations with Russia”.
According to Sushentsov, Clinton would pursue a softer policy than was stated in its pre-election rhetoric. “It is, for example, thinking about the possibility of reducing the program of modernization of nuclear weapons, including modifying the program to equip nuclear warheads on cruise missiles,” — said the expert.
For Russia, no matter which candidate for us President won — U.S. foreign policy towards Russia great changes will not undergo, says the head of the Federation Council Committee on defense Viktor Ozerov. “I think that the rhetoric and the second one of the candidate against Russia belonged to the category of election”, — he said. According to the Senator, the new head of state in any case will seek common ground with Russia, but from a strategy of global influence on world politics Washington will not give up.
Political analyst Yevgeny Minchenko said that trump has expressed sympathy towards Russia during the campaign, but has repeatedly changed his position on various issues. “The establishment Republicans have configured anti-Russian. The candidate in Vice-presidents at the trump criticized the “Russian invasion of Ukraine”. So, the big question in the stability of the likes of trump, — said Minchenko. — Clinton’s negative approach. And she is interventionist. On the other hand, the Russian elite has a history with the Clintons. It won’t be easy with any of the candidates.”
The question of “personal chemistry”
A source close to the foreign Ministry, said earlier that Moscow was indifferent to which candidate for U.S. President will win. According to him, the more comfortable partner for Russia would be trump, because he is a businessman and, therefore, a pragmatist. Negotiability Clinton interlocutor was assessed is extremely low, considering that interact with it will be very difficult.
Zlobin agree that trump does not hide the idea of bringing politics relations business. “He can make the steps that can be interpreted as a rejection of the promises and he is more unpredictable, although it can be much more to win, even though I and you can lose too much. Clinton in this respect is more predictable”, — the expert concludes.
Sushentsov believes that Russian-American relations setting personal sympathies of the leaders of practically nothing, there may be good personal relations of the politicians, but bad interstate. “I guess we can assume that trump’s personal chemistry will be better than Clinton — says the source . But I think for the current stage of bilateral relations trust and is not required, as long as the relations satisfy two main conditions: leaders should respect each other as professionals, and the second that they fulfilled the agreements and relationships aligned as possible.”
Kolesnikov believes that it is unlikely that Russia will attempt to rapprochement with the new administration. According to him, the Russian leadership can “mimic the movement of a bridge across the Atlantic”, but to build a real bridge to the West and the USA in particular, are unlikely to.
Syria and the Donbass unchanged
During the administration of President Barack Obama’s dialogue of Moscow and Washington in the Donbass and the Syrian conflict have stalled. Under the new leader of the United States major changes in these areas will not, experts predict.
The new US President will need about six months to develop a relationship to the Syrian and the Ukrainian issue, said Zlobin. Sushentsov indicates that at the trump (as in Clinton) Ukraine is not in the top five foreign policy priorities. “In the next administration, most likely Clinton, will not be such a lobbyist for Ukrainian Affairs, what was Joe Biden in the Obama administration,” — said the expert. He believes that the United States will not put pressure on the Ukrainian authorities with the purpose adopted by the Donbass in the conditions of the Minsk agreements, and Kiev because they believe the injured party, which can be interpreted in its clauses.
Sushentsov says no changes are planned on the Syrian track. “Syria is the battleground between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Iran, and in real terms the international Russian-American part it is not noticeable. The resolution of this crisis is also not expected. I think USA will be too preoccupied by their domestic problems, to somehow re-fit vigorously in the Syrian crisis,” — says the source .
Kolesnikov of Carnegie believes that the rapprochement between Moscow and Washington will not be until the agenda is the question of accession to Russia of Crimea, and the Minsk agreement are not met. More optimistic, the head of the Duma Committee on CIS Leonid Kalashnikov. Onsite that trump unlike Clinton not to put pressure on Russia on Syria, disarmament and NATO expansion. “But he will have to answer for his words about the necessity together with Russia to deal with Syria and other sensitive issues,” — said the Deputy . According to him, trump Russia is trying to restart relations, unlike Clinton.
Sanctions are not canceled
Trump unlikely in the next year lifting of U.S. sanctions against Russia, imposed after the conflict in Ukraine, political analysts believe. “The position of the West — it consolidated for a long time. As well as the position of Vladimir Putin, which he also absolutely will not stop,” — said Kolesnikov from Carnegie.
“A lot of sanctions adopted by the U.S. Congress, and then the adjustment is unlikely to be. And speaking of presidential sanctions, when trump question hangs in the air — I agree Zlobin. — I think he will not dare to lift the sanctions that are there. He will put some brake on the adoption of new sanctions, positive can be expected, but the overall relationship with Russia is not important. Trump once probably will do Iran and China and against the allies with NATO.”
Sushentsov also believes that the U.S. sanctions in the coming year will apply, although foreign policy is not a top priority issue for the American President, and he will not deal with the sanctions as “task number one”. According to him, will return to this question after solving internal problems in the second half of 2017.
However, in the longer term the American elite can raise the issue of reducing sanctions in exchange for behavior on the part of Moscow that they will “seem right”, says the analyst. Sushentsov believes that the sanctions yet lead to undesirable consequences for the U.S. the result, in fact, pushing Moscow towards Beijing, the main opponent of Washington.