The purchase by Rosneft of its own shares from Rosneftegaz should not greatly affect the exchange rate, said the first Deputy Chairman of the Bank of Russia Ksenia Yudaeva.
“There are different brand options as they are (“Rosneft”. — ) can Finance this deal, the details can’t comment on how it is done and what consequences this will have. In any case, it is unlikely that there will be some very serious consequences, some superpowered consequences,” she said (quoted by “RIA Novosti”).
Yudaeva also said that he expects the low volatility of the exchange rate in the years 2017-2019. “In terms of the stabilization of capital flows and oil price volatility in the exchange rate will remain at the gains achieved to date”, — said the first Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank.
Monday, November 7, the government issued a Directive on the sale of shares of “Rosneft”. Ministry of economic development reported that the minimum cost of a package of “Rosneft”, which is scheduled to sell as part of privatization, — 710,85 billion rubles, the Amount calculated on the basis of quotations of the company on 11 October. The money for the privatization of 19.5% of the company must act in the budget before December 31.
“I assure you, the money this year will be. From “Rosneftegaz” all necessary resources”, — said Tuesday the Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov (quoted by Reuters).
The analyst of Raiffeisenbank Denis Poryvai believes the negative news that the money for the sale of package of shares of “Rosneft” the budget expects to receive this year. “This is negative for the ruble in the medium term”, — he wrote in his review, published on 8 November. Theoretically, Rosneftegaz may receive for the shares of oil companies and rubles and foreign currency, but payments to the budget are likely to be in roubles, says the analyst.
Poryvai suggests that “Rosneft” has already spent part of liquidity for the purchase of “Bashneft”. The transaction took place on 12 October, Rosneft has acquired from the Federal property management Agency 50,075% of “Bashneft” for 329,69 billion. in addition, “Rosneft” could convert part of the foreign exchange liquidity ($100-120 million per day), in order to accumulate sufficient rouble funds for a possible “autoprihlasenie,” says Poryvai. In his opinion, selling Rosneft’s currency could lead to smooth volatility in the ruble, reducing its dependence on fluctuations of oil prices. “After completion of the transaction would be a reduction of supply of foreign currency on sale with the “Rosneft”, which will be negative for the ruble,” — concludes the analyst.
In addition, says Poryvai, if the calculation of the budget will be in rubles without their involvement from the Central Bank through currency swap, the currency amount of liquidity in the system will not change but its redistribution between the banks associated with currency conversion in rubles and flow of currency from accounts “Rosneft” on account of “Rosneftegaz”, the cost of foreign currency liquidity may increase. “This effect is amplified by expectations of increasing the key dollar rates,” says Poryvai.
“The terms of the transaction on privatization of shares of “Rosneft” has not yet been determined. According to media reports, this asset can be of different applicants, so do not think that in these conditions, “Rosneft” could convert into rubles a considerable amount of foreign currency”, — says the analyst “URALSIB” Irina Lebedeva. According to her, most likely, immediately before the transaction “Rosneft” can attract the required ruble liquidity. “But it will cause short-term strengthening of the ruble, not its slackening” — says the analyst.
Previously, the analysts of Raiffeisenbank predicted that the possible acquisition by Rosneft of its shares may cause a temporary shortage of currency in the local market.
Possible buy-back will not lead to shocks in the foreign exchange market, assured the CEO of “Rosneft” Igor Sechin in October. “Nobody will know, [nothing], in addition to the positive effect on the national currency market”, — he said on the sidelines of the Eurasian forum in Verona.