Asian stock indices showed mainly positive dynamics by results of trading session on Tuesday, November 8, on the eve of elections of the President of the United States. Summary index of region MSCI Asia Pacific rose 0.4 percent. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.03%, China’s Shanghai Composite index increased 0.46%, the index of Chinese blue-chip CSI300 was up 0.44 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng rose 0.47 percent, South Korea’s KOSPI rose 0.29% and the Australian ASX 200 has increased by 0.13%.
Asian site grow following the rally, which began on world markets on Monday, November 7, after it became known that the FBI decided not to resume the investigation on violations in the use of private mail server of the Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. Published on Monday the results of the exit polls, conducted jointly by CBS and ABC News and the Washington Post revealed that Clinton is ahead of his rival from the Republican party of Donald trump.
Against the background of these news American stock markets on 7 November showed rapid growth. The S&p 500 index on Monday rose 2.22%, the NASDAQ Composite closed with a growth of 2.37%. The new York stock exchange showed a positive trend, the NYSE showed an increase of 2.05%.
European markets on Monday showed moderate growth against the background of strengthening of dollar and fears of some investors about a possible high volatility in the stock markets in case of a victory trump. By 13:00 Moscow time the index of the largest European equities EURONEXT 100 is up 0.35%, British FTSE rose by 0.12%, the stock market Germany’s DAX showed a drop of 0.12 percent.
Bloomberg described the refusal of the FBI to investigate the case of the private mail server Clinton as a positive signal for her. At the same time, investors say that after the June referendum in the UK, where, contrary to the polls was won by the supporters of leaving the EU, don’t want to underestimate the chances of the less popular candidate for the presidency, says the Agency. “I’m not sure that that (position of the FBI. —) makes all the difference. I have not changed their positions because of this turn of events. This can slow down the growth of the rating of trump, who abruptly caught up with his opponent. Now the question is the number of its tacit supporters,” — said the Agency Bloomberg Fund Manager Millennium Global in London Richard Benson. In the Fund Millennium Global Investments chances trump to win 35%.
Investors tend to view Hillary Clinton as a more predictable candidate, while the position of Donald trump in matters of foreign policy, trade and immigration, on the contrary, is a source of concern for markets, writes Reuters. “Markets like certainty and predictability”, — quotes Agency the words of Jeff Carbone, co-founder of investment company Cornerstone Financial Partners. Investment Bank Morgan Stanley in the recommendations traders noted that in case of victory, Clinton riskier assets will go up.
“We believe that the risk appetite returns to global markets, and although presidential elections are still intrigue most investors, it seems, is configured to increase the share of risky assets in their portfolios,” — said senior Manager for research and analysis of industries and capital markets PSB Ilya Frolov.
“The uncertainty associated with the results of U.S. presidential elections, remains a key driver of volatility in the financial markets… In case of victory of Hillary Clinton, we expect only small fluctuations in the securities market. Financial markets will likely suffer during the Clinton administration,” wrote the analyst in a review of the Swiss banking group Julius Baer Carsten Menke. In his opinion, in case of victory of Donald trump in the markets may experience short-term decline, which will create new trading opportunities. “Most likely to benefit markets defensive assets. Gold prices will soar and continue to rise, at least in the short term. We can see growth of about 10% from the current level and is ready to take on the market long position”, — says the analyst.
Stock indexes of the Moscow exchange on Tuesday show growth. From the start of trading, the MICEX index rose 0.93%, the RTS index of 0.95%. “The Russian market is supported by oil prices, which on Monday fell to $45,5 per barrel. Now we see a small correction, oil prices rose by 2%”, — says the analyst of “Finam” Bogdan Zvarich. He does not expect a significant growth in the stock markets until the final results of the presidential elections in the United States (the last polling stations will close at 5:00 GMT on Wednesday, 9 November). “It is now too late to make bets and change strategy. Investors have decided, and all were waiting for,” commented Zvarych.
If the US President is elected, Donald trump, it could trigger a sharp fall in global markets, but dynamics of the Russian market, probably, will be temporarily better than that of counterparts, amid expectations that the new President will weaken or cancel anti-Russian sanctions imposed in connection with events in Ukraine, an analyst at Sberbank CIB Cole Axon. However, in his opinion, this support can erode quickly if a sharp strengthening of the dollar will entail the fall in oil prices.
The first count of the ballots at the election, the United States passed the night in a small settlement Dixville Notch, new Hampshire. There voted eight electors, four of them supported Hillary Clinton, two of Donald trump (one vote was given to the candidate of the libertarian party Gary Johnson and one MITT Romney). At 14:00 Moscow time the voting has commenced in the most densely populated States on the East coast of the United States.