The ruble fell to the dollar at the opening of trading on the Moscow exchange on the background of the victory of Donald trump in the presidential election in the United States have stabilized. On Wednesday afternoon he hesitated near the closing price Tuesday — 63,76 rubles per dollar, strengthened in the time to 63.27 rubles, follows from the data exchange. The price of Brent crude, which fell on Wednesday below $45 a barrel during the day reached $46.5 per barrel. Such a market reaction similar to the reaction after the results of the referendum on the British exit from the European Union, analysts polled .
Victory trump can be considered a new Brexit — both of these events were not included in the baseline scenario, market participants, said the chief analyst of the Bank Natalia Vasilyuk. In addition, in this and in another case, despite a sharp reaction to the preliminary data, after the appearance of the final results on the markets there was a temporary correction.
Further reaction of world markets for Brexit and the winning trump in the presidential election in the United States will be similar, according to the Chairman of the Board of Directors of MDM Bank Oleg Vyugin. In his opinion, indicators of the fallen world indexes will recover in the near future, and the reaction of the Russian market in the elections will be relatively peaceful. “The ruble to the dollar will remain near current levels. As the price of oil. In General, the ruble will be determined by the expectations and outcome of the OPEC meeting on November 30, and not the results of the U.S. elections,” — said Vyugin.
On the Russian market the winning trump in the near future can only be influenced through oil prices, says managing research and Analytics PSB Alexander Polyutov. According to him, the rebound in oil prices on Wednesday morning confirmed the first emotional reaction of the markets was already beginning to pass. At the same time Polutov admits that if oil prices fall below $44 per barrel, the dollar may rise to 65 rubles. According to him, in the next week or two the dollar will fluctuate in the corridor 63-65 rubles per dollar. The return of USD/RUB to the level of 65 rubles. in the near future and expect Sberbank CIB analysts said in their review.
“The first market reaction was more emotional, because everyone was expecting a victory for Clinton,” says Director of global governance in the stock market, “Renaissance Capital” Maxim Orlovsky.
In the near future the volatility of the exchange rate will be high “because the market responds to political news, speculation and rumors,” said Wednesday the Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev. He stressed that the underlying trend of the Russian currency to strengthen. The Bank of Russia of the serious risks for the financial sector in connection with the results of the elections in the US are not waiting, said Wednesday the first Deputy Chairman of the Central Bank Ksenia Yudaeva.
In the coming weeks, fear of risk will prevail in all emerging markets bonds, but the Russian will show the results better than others, analysts of Sberbank CIB. “Russian paper was not widely represented in the primary market in the last couple of years and therefore is unlikely to be the main assets for sale,” — said in their review.
In ROSBANK hope that in the next few days the Russian market will start to grow again. The panic in the markets to events in the USA will not last long, says Director of debt capital markets at ROSBANK Anton Kiryukhin. “For us, the victory trump — more auspicious event than the victory of the candidate of the Democrats. Once investors are convinced that trump is pursuing a balanced and understandable policies, markets stabiliziruemost”, — said the banker.
Until the end of the year the exchange rate will no longer depend on the US elections and the meeting of OPEC countries the November 30 decision of the U.S. Federal reserve’s interest rate on December 14, says Polutov. According to his forecast, if oil-producing countries failed negotiations on the freezing or restrictions on the production of raw materials and oil will remain below $50 per barrel by the end of the year, the ruble may drop to 67 to 69 rubles per dollar. On the other hand, the exchange rate can be positively influenced by local factor — the demand for rubles on the background of the privatization process.