World stock indexes fell on Tuesday, 8 November, against the background of information that the Republican Donald trump is leading in the electoral votes received in the presidential elections in the United States. Previously, the newspaper the New York Times, which at the beginning of the counting of votes was assessed the probability of winning Hillary Clinton 80%, changed its forecast to win trump and closer to the end of the counting appreciated it more than 90%.
Futures for the major stock indexes of USA as of 07:20 Moscow time have decreased in the range of 3-4%, follows from the data of OTC trades. The Dow Jones fell by 3.5% (650 points), the S&P 500 by 4.26%, the NASDAQ 4.1%.
China’s Shanghai Composite fell 1.32% (41,66), index of Chinese blue-chip CSI300 — 1.18% (39,65), Hong Kong’s Hang Seng — by 2.85% (646,73 points). South Korea’s KOSPI fell by 2.43% (48,64), Australian ASX200 — 1.64% (86,29).
Japanese stock market closed in red zone. The Nikkei fell by more than 5%.
The increase in the probability of winning trump in the election led to the fall of the dollar against other currencies. More likely, the dollar has weakened against the yen by 3.46%. Against the Euro the American currency has fallen in price on 2,2%, to $1,1265.
The price of Brent crude fell to us $44.5 per barrel. Futures on Brent fell by 3.75% and traded at the level of 43.9.
Increase in the price of us Treasuries, and gold futures rose 4%
Investors around the world are counting on the victory of the candidate from Democrats — the preliminary results of the counting of votes was unexpected. As explained by Reuters, co-founder of the investment company Cornerstone Financial Partners Jeff Carbon, markets considered Clinton as a more predictable candidate, while trump is a serious uncertainty for the U.S. economy, foreign policy, international trade and immigration matters.
The reaction of the European stock markets can be traced after 11:00 GMT: at this time, open the main site. Following the close of trading on Tuesday, November 8, the British FTSE rose by 0.53% to 6843,13 p., German DAX — on 0,24%, to 10 p. 482,32
Masuria in “red”
Moscow exchange opens at 10:00 GMT. At the end of trading on Tuesday, November 8, the MICEX index has increased from the closing level of the previous trading session by 0.78%, to 1967,93 p. the RTS Index added 0.9% and amounted to 972,66 p.
Trading on the Moscow exchange on Wednesday, November 9, will start in the “red” zone, respondents believe analysts.
According to a leading investment adviser of BKS Sergei Skorobogatov, the exchange will open in the area of minus 5-6%, and the RTS will be reduced by more than MICEX. “The auction will be held with high volatility, and I believe that during the session the positions of the indexes will recover,” he said . He believes that the increased volatility in the Russian stock market will continue until Jan.
Trader “Aton” Elbek of Dalimov expects the fall of the Russian stock market by 4-5%. More likely can suffer the blue chips, since they account for the largest volume of investments of non-residents, he said in an interview with .
“If the U.S. index futures indicate such a serious decline, the Russian stock market is likely waiting for the same thing” — says the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Denis Poryvai. Dollar, in his opinion, will cost above 65 rubles, as the price of oil fell slightly and remains at the level just below $45.
The impact of communications on the leadership trump during the counting of votes in the global markets, he said, can be both temporary and permanent: now to talk about this difficult, as markets did not expect this outcome and do not have exact representations, trump will build its policy. “It may be the same as Brexit: all decreased gradually as awareness of the situation. The pound fell against other currencies — with no rebound,” reminded Poryvai. In the short term, he believes, will increase the volatility of the markets.
Head of active operations Department of “Veles capital” Eugene Shilenkov expects strong volatility in the market in the next two to three days. “But even if the Russian market at the moment will fall much, then he is able to play this fall. The victory of any of the candidates have their pros and cons,” he said.
“Obviously, in this situation, the ruble would strengthen, but given the falling oil prices it is likely to fall along with the dollar,” says a trader in a large investment Bank. According to him, the winning trump in the election promises of the oil market any benefits, because it will pursue a policy of trade protectionism. The trader does not rule out that in the event of a decline in oil prices, the dollar may strengthen to 67 rubles. in the next two months.
Trader BKS Alexander Mulberger said that the market may open with a slight strengthening of the ruble. “We expect to 64.5 rubles per dollar. Strong growth is not, as the weakening of the dollar offset by the rise in the Euro and decline in oil prices”, — he explained.