Non-oil exports in the third quarter of 2016 showed growth for the first time in 2014, follows from the analytical report of the Russian export centre (REC; have). REC was established in 2015 the organization, by his own description, “provides comprehensive targeted support to export-oriented and engaged in foreign trade activities”. The calculations of the organization based on data of the Federal customs service (FCS).
Russian non-oil exports compared with the third quarter of 2015 increased by 1.6% to $27.7 billion, estimated by the REC. The increase compared to the previous period was recorded after seven quarters of continuous decline indicator. Compared with the second quarter of this year non-oil exports increased by 8.9%, from the data of REC. The share of non-oil exports in total exports of Russia in the third quarter of 2016 amounted to about 39%.
Overall exports from Russia, according to Rosstat, in January—August fell by 25% (report for September not yet published). 32% decrease in exports of goods fuel and energy complex, 18.5% metals 22.3% — chemical products. While oil, petrochemicals and natural gas continue to be the main goods of Russian export, emphasizes the REC.
Non-oil exports non-energy analysts are divided into three stages depending on the degree of processing of products. For example, the middle stages include synthetic rubber, sunflower oil, newsprint, steel pipe. In the upper — tires, passenger cars, radar equipment, diamonds, drugs, chocolate, tobacco. And in the lower stages are wheat, lumber, aluminum, steel products, Nickel, cast iron, frozen fish etc., said the representative of the organization.
Typically, such positions — forest, grain — usually attributed to the export of raw materials, indicates the leading expert of the Center of the HSE Sergey Pukhov. Question even, he says, can be considered non-oil export cars assembled in Russia, but from foreign parts. Analysts take into account REC production of low processing is included in the composition of non-oil exports, objected to the Director of the research center of international trade Ranhigs Alexander Knobel. Another thing is that it’s not high-tech exports is an important indicator of the development of the economy, he explains.
For the period from January to September (first nine months) non-oil exports still showed a decline compared to the same period last year, follows from the data of REC. The drop was $9,65 billion, or 11.3%. This is mainly contributed to lower sales abroad of steel products (-16,8%), chemical products (-20,9%) and engineering products (-8,5%). Small positive dynamics was shown only on export products (+6.3 per cent), glass, ceramics and stone products (+1.6%) and wood and paper products (+0.7 percent).
From a technical point of view, the non-oil export out of recession. Now he must start to grow steadily due to the devaluation of the ruble, said Knobel. The end point of the recession in the manufacturing of non-oil goods, it seems passed, but there is no guarantee that the rate will go up, says Sergey Pukhov from the HSE. In particular, this may prevent strengthening of the ruble and the slowdown in world trade, which may lead to a “trapped new normality”, when the growth rate of the economy even after the crisis will not be able to achieve growth until 2008, he explains.
Assessment Pukhov, non-primary component in the structure of Russian exports now accounts for only about 15%.
A leading destination of non-oil exports from Russia, according to the REC, was China — its share for the first nine months of the year was 7.2%. Thus, in contrast to Kazakhstan, which is located on the second highest (7,1%), China showed a positive growth of 3.1% (Kazakhstan recorded a drop of 20.3%). In addition, China became the largest buyer of Russian food, shifting from first place in Turkey, calculated on the basis of data of the FCS.