GDP of post-Communist countries over the last twenty years, growing on average faster than the advanced economies, but the benefits were not all. It said the chief economist of the European Bank for reconstruction and development (EBRD) Sergei Guriev at the conference “Vedomosti” “Effective tools of growth”, reports .
Guriev cited survey data Bank Transition Report (“Life in transition”), under which 56% of the inhabitants of the countries with developing economy income levels have not changed or decreased in comparison with developed countries. The study was conducted in 34 countries with developing economies, were surveyed in 51 million households.
The GDP of developing countries in the last 25 years have grown fast enough, but the benefits of this were not all, stated the economist. According to him, only 44% of the population benefited from the transition to a market economy. If you look at changes in human well-being over the last 25 years, only 2-3% have seriously benefited from the transition to a market economy. It is very rich and educated, said Guriev. In 20-30% of the poorest citizens incomes grow faster than the average in developing countries.
“This is not surprising, because poorer countries had to grow faster. But for most people in post-Communist countries, income growth was lower than GDP growth per capita”, — said the economist.
From 1989 to 1996, the loss of citizens from the reforms were the most significant. All of these trends are also valid for Russia, where the transition to a market economy has indeed led to a substantial increase in revenue, said Guriev.
According to the EBRD, since 1989 the average growth of incomes in Russia amounted to about 70%. “But if we ask how many people in Russia can say that the average growth of income is reflected in their purse, you will find that there are very few people, only 20%” — he said.
In 5-7% of Russians, according to the EBRD over this period, income fell.
In General, said Guriev, in most developing countries only a minority reduced the gap in income from residents of developed countries. For Russia, this is only 40% of the population, he said. The gap in income from residents of developed countries, according to Guriev, partly due to the growing income inequality among people in developing countries.
“People believe that inequality continues to grow. Unfortunately, from this point of view, all developing countries, and especially Russia, characterized by extremely uneven distribution of welfare. We have a disproportionately high number of billionaires, if we compare it with the level of GDP,” — said the economist.
He added that billionaires in Russia than in any other developing region. That’s good, says Guriev, but the people asking the questions: how these people became rich. In this case, said Guriev, Russia, unlike China or Latin America, most billionaires earned their fortune in the commodities sectors. According to him, this is a unique situation.
He also cited the data of the research Institute of the Bank Credit Suise, according to which Russia is the country with the highest levels of wealth and inequality in the world. “Russia is the most corrupt country in the world, but for my income it is certainly more corrupt than comparable countries, countries with comparable income levels,” said Guriev.
Another effect of the transition to a market economy for citizens in developing countries, which told the economist, the decline in growth of people. There is a global trend that people grow with each generation increasing, but countries there is a peculiarity: people who were born during the reforms fall out of this trend, on average they are lower than those born before or after the reforms, said Sergei Guriev. He said that this feature is characteristic and for Russia.
“We see that there is such an effect. In General, the difference between people born during the reforms and more prosperous time, is 1 see “the Burden of reform, the hardships that were experienced by the people during the reform, comparable in effect with the civil war”, — said Guriev.